True or False

[GunnerRob]

I recieved these statistics within an email from a friend today. Can anyone in Australia validate these figures? Since we in the states don't get anything in the news concerning information like this about foreign countries, I don't know if this is factual or a myth.

[it has now been 12 months since gun owners in Australia were forced by new law to surrender 640,381 personal firearms to be destroyed by their own government, a program costing Australia taxpayers more than $500 million dollars.

The first year results are now in:

Australia-wide, homicides are up 3.2 percent Australia-wide, assaults are up 8.6 percent

Australia-wide, armed robberies are up 44 percent (yes, 44 percent!).

In the state of Victoria alone, homicides with firearms are now up 300 percent.

There has also been a dramatic increase in break-ins and assaults of the elderly.

(Note that while the law-abiding citizens turned them in, the criminals did not, and criminals still possess their guns!).

While figures over the previous 25 years showed a steady decrease in armed robbery with firearms, this has changed drastically upward in the past 12 months, since the criminals now are guaranteed that their prey is unarmed.

Australian politicians are at a loss to explain how public safety has decreased, after such monumental effort and expense was expended in "successfully ridding Australian society of guns."]

Thanks for any claification you guys can provide!

[mdbrandy]

I can't answer your questions, but I do know that quoting percentages like this is just a way to inflate or deflate changes depending on what you're trying to prove. I remember someone arguing some years ago that around a recently constructed nuclear reactor, still births had increased by 66% the following year! What they didn't tell you was that the actual numbers went from 3 to 5. Of course, the year after that, there were none! Lies, damned lies, and statistics. I think that's somebody's saying...

[zhead240]

i don't have the stats on canadian crime but the gun registry here has cost tax payers a billion dollars so far (originally estimated to cost 100 million)and basicly did the same thing. take guns away from of law abiding citizens and left the crimminals with weapons, and we don't even get to vote on any issues. the violent crime rate before this cost was one of the lowest in the g7 nations. if it ain't broke spend, spend ,spend,the canadian way

[halz]

Sounds like the very questionable 'facts' being pedalled by Mr. Heston and the US gun lobby. True there has been a massive effort to buy back high powered and automatic weapons by the govt in Australia but there has to my knowledge been no corresponding surge in crime. However, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the sort of people who commit firearm-related offences are (a) unlikely to voluntarily hand in their illegal weapons and ( have the underworld contacts to easily obtain more. I imagine this is true the world over...

[Z Kid]

What you have to remember is that half of the Victorian homocides are caused by slightly trigger happy police .

The guns bought back, were as halz stated simply the auto and semi auto, and a few other more high powered versions that were previously obtainably, and really unnecessary.

Even quoting those figures, you need to look at the actual numbers, a big percentage increase would only be one or two people in the whole state. Getting shot here is not nearly as common as it seems to be in the US. (give or take the odd resteraunt massacare).

I have a slight farming background, and in reality for everything in australia that you are going to want to shoot at, a high powered bolt action 22 calibre rifle with 10 shots will get at least 8 of them. Fully automatic weapons are just a cry that someone is compensating for being found lacking in other areas.

Cheers Chris

[Zedrally]

Originally posted by GunnerRob

Australia-wide, armed robberies are up 44 percent (yes, 44 percent!).

In the state of Victoria alone, homicides with firearms are now up 300 percent.

These aren't figures, they are percentages which bear no relation to actual figures.

Lobbyists will always try to confuse the masses with madness such as this.

Regards,

A concerned Victorian.

[26ounce]

I agree that you can't trust those numbers until you get a better idea of how they were calculated.

Having said that, I believe there is reliable data illustrating an increase in those crime types in the U.K. following their virtual prohibition of firearms.

[Alfadog]

You only need to have heard the arguments from both sides concerning Public vs. Private schools in Australia and you can see numbers mean NOTHING!

[BillD]

One of my favorite websites is breakthechain.org. It researches chain letters like this and evaluates the source information (if any). Their take on this can be found at:

http://www.breakthechain.org/exclusives/australiaguns.html

The use of percentages rather than raw numbers is central to the distortion used in the e-mail. The following is a summary quote from the evaluation:

"My favorite claim in the letter is that gun-related homicides in Victoria are up 300%. An increase from 7 to 14 is only 100% and is hardly compelling. Population increase alone could account for the higher number. Regardless, in the United States - where most major cities have 7-14 homicides in a month - we would kill (pun intended) for crime rates that low."