COVID-19

[Zed Head]

We've been loading up AV's Hitachi thread.  Thought I'd start a new thread on the Corona virus.  Here's a good way to watch what's happening.  The yellow dots on the lower right are the scary part.  They won't just stop climbing.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Zed Head]

Here's another.  Weird how different the numbers.  WHO seems to be reporting less.  Edit - apparently some sites only report on the weekdays.  ???

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

Edited March 15, 2020 by Zed Head

[Zed Head]

Like the US - 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

[Reptoid Overlords]

Looking at the Russian Federation, one might be tempted to think that vodka is the vaccine.

[240260280]

Korea seems to have the most accurate stats.  ~ 0.7% death rate is not as bad as feared.  Not sure why Italy and Iran are higher.  Different strain of virus or more people with underlying ailments.

[Zed Head]

The more tests that you do, the more people you catch that aren't showing symptoms.  In America and other countries the lack of testing makes the death rate look higher, because only people closer to dying are tested when they show up at the hospital.  Because they're not catching as many people with the virus.  The irony of trying to make the numbers loo good by testing as few people as possible is that it makes the death rate look higher.

I got a 2% death rate using this data.

https://www.covidus.com/coronavirus-usa/

[Patcon]

I have been watching the John Hopkins site for 3-4 weeks now

12 minutes ago, 240260280 said:

Korea seems to have the most accurate stats.  ~ 0.7% death rate is not as bad as feared.  Not sure why Italy and Iran are higher.  Different strain of virus or more people with underlying ailments.

S Korea pushed very hard from the very beginning to mitigate transmission and they have a very high percentage of hospital beds versus population. Also the death rates spike when the medical system gets overwhelmed like in Italy and Iran. That's when it gets ugly. That is the reason for all the current closings, to slow transmission to a manageable level.

[gwri8]

Given all the bans of public gatherings and events plus the shutdown of some business's, it looks like some of us might get some more quality time with our Z's.

[psdenno]

California just ordered all bars and winery operations to close.

Locally, there are 14 identified cases in the county with 12 of them in my community.  Four of the local 12 are in the hospital and the other eight are quarantined at home.  The recommendation is for everyone over 65 to shelter in place.

My son was to start his new job with Google tomorrow.  Last week he was told to come in tomorrow (Monday), sign in, pick up a company computer, and go home for two weeks prepared to work remotely.  This morning, he got an email telling him to phone in tomorrow and they would get him signed in and on the payroll - no need to come in for a computer.  He will basically be on paid vacation for at least two weeks, maybe more, until they decide to return employees to the office.

Dennis

 

 

[motorman7]

Unfortunately in all this, I am an engineer and am trained to just look at stats and data.  Having looked at the data, the whole Coronavirus scare makes no sense to me.  

To date (March 15) for all of 2020 (Approximately 75 days) there are 60 Coronavirus deaths in the US.

Meanwhile in the US for all of 2020 there have been roughly:

8,200 Flu related deaths.

9,800 suicides

7,500 Automobile accident  deaths

14,300 Opioid related deaths.

Also, Coronavirus is no more deadly than the flu for people under 65 based on data from China an South Korea.

Cases are not 'spiking', they are just getting more test kits and are now able to differentiate between flu and coronaviris.  Coronavirus has been spreading unchecked for the last 3 months in the US without significant damage.  Most people have passed it off as the flu before the hype reached full swing.  The number in the US infected ranges anywhere from 50K to 500K according to a John Hopkins professor.  I would agree with that number to the high side on this.

I think Boris Johnson of the UK is the only individual that gives me hope for sanity in this crazy world.

Personally, my bet is that the coronavirus will mutate into the shadovirus.  This is the virus that will make us all afraid of our own shadows.  Cure will be to avoid direct sunshine and all lights inside your home.

Just my thoughts. OK, back into isolation

 

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by motorman7

[Zed Head]

The fact that it's new and undefined is the key.  If you read around about past epidemics you'll find some that faded away and some that were very bad.  But they can't be predicted.  Ebola is the last big one, and, apparently, because we were prepared, it never took hold in the rest of the world.  I think that the bigger fear is that eventually one will come along that really is very deadly.  This one is a practice run, and we're failing in controlling it.  It should be easy, supposedly we're the most sophisticated most powerful nation in the world..

And you're looking at after-the-fact numbers.  Besides that, what do you tell the families of the 42 people that died in Washington?  After scientists in Washington had identified the disease but the CDC told them to stop testing.  The consistent failures make you wonder what else could go wrong.  I think that's what much of the fuss is about.

And if you have relatives over 65 then you worry about the overall healthcare system failing them and letting them get ill.  If you just don't care about people over 65 then I guess you'll be okay with whatever happens.  Take off your engineer hat and see what comes in to your head.

Edit - actually just realized that you used absolute numbers instead of percentages.  C'mon, you're an engineer!  You know better.  Do the math.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Zed Head

[heyitsrama]

6 hours ago, 240260280 said:

Korea seems to have the most accurate stats.  ~ 0.7% death rate is not as bad as feared.  Not sure why Italy and Iran are higher.  Different strain of virus or more people with underlying ailments.

I wonder the implications of US sanctions on Iran, and how it's making medical treatment within Iran more difficult. I see that there is a "humanitarian" section which allows some medical devices into Iran. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/iran_humanitarian_20191025.pdf