COVID-19

[Zed Head]

Here's a good article that bridges the gap between nerd-science and common people.  

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/17/scientists-age-groups-covid-19-workplaces-shops-restaurants

[240260280]

1 hour ago, Av8ferg said:

Cases are declining in China it seems like they’ve got this under control over there.

I have some land in Florida I can sell you for a good price.

[240260280]

Very little information is getting past China's great internet wall since they started really ramping up the blockade but this Chinese billionaire who defected to the USA has connections and posts daily on you tube.

Here are a few insights on what is happening in China for the past 24 hours:

btw Miles Guo is a bit eccentric but has the typical single-child "Prince" attitude of so many males from mainland China.

 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by 240260280

[EuroDat]

And Bill gave this speach in 2015.

[Jason240z]

4 hours ago, Av8ferg said:

Guys I really don’t get what’s going on here. To me it seems like an overreaction by government. We have had other viruses the past, the swine flu or the SARa virus or even the normal influenza that have killed more people than this current one it makes me wonder if the government knows something that we don’t know because they are taking such drastic measures and completely destroying the economy. I think we had over 30,000 deaths in the US last year from the normal influenza and currently worldwide there less than 8,200 deaths so it’s just doesn’t make sense to me. Cases are declining in China it seems like they’ve got this under control over there. Can any of you make sense of this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Cases are in decline where they have a totalitarian system ruling them.  A key case of where this sort of 'leadership' has a positive impact. 

 

Playing down against seasonal flu just doesn't work, neither does SAR's as they do not have the same incubation period.  Rubbing it off and not following guidelines just shows what that person thinks about those around them.

[Zed Head]

1 hour ago, Jason240z said:

Cases are in decline where they have a totalitarian system ruling them. 

Examples?  I see China leveling off.  Who else?

Iran?  http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/who-team-arrives-iran-covid-19-surges-korea-italy

Edit - more timely data - https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/18/covid-19-iran-reports-big-jump-in-virus-deaths/

Edited March 18, 2020 by Zed Head

[Zed Head]

Just kind of realized that nobody in the media is actually measuring or talking about in detail one of the key issues - how many hospital beds or ventilators or IC nurses are being utilized.  And what is the available capacity?  How many spots are open and how fast are the y filling up?

Everyone is talking about testing and how fast cases are growing but the "No Vacancy" sign at the hospitals is what really matters the most.  A chart of hospital beds filling might have some impact.

They're building a field hospital at the local fairground in Oregon.  It will be, in essence, in an actual field.

https://katu.com/news/local/oregon-to-open-250-bed-emergency-hospital-in-state-fairgrounds

 

[Zed Head]

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/14/21179714/coronavirus-covid-19-hospital-beds-china

Edited March 18, 2020 by Zed Head

[Zed Head]

Wait, here's a better look.  ICU beds.  Not sure what's real.  It's from 2012.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3551445/

[240260280]

North Korea has 1 case.  Just as believable as anything from China.

Italy has their crematoriums burning 24/7.  China has done this and also brought in additional portable incinerators to help out... but here are the numbers:

China has 1.40B people and 3,200 deaths.

Italy   has 0.06B people and 2,500 deaths.

 

China probably had >60,000 deaths.

[motorman7]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-world-focuses-on-coronavirus-dont-forget-about-the-deadly-flu-2020-02-06

I'm still having a hard time being worried about this when I see these numbers for the flu.  They are not even in the same ballpark.

 

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-undiagnosed-spread.html

"And 86% of those infected experience no symptoms."  I will take that over the flu any day.  

This means we should probably multiply the number infected by 6 to get a more accurate number, also. 

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-australian-scientists-map-immune-070507339.html

"Their research, published in Nature Medicine journal on Tuesday, shows people are recovering from the new virus like they would from the flu"

 

 

[jfa.series1]

Information coming out today in the New England Journal of Medicine on how long this bug lives in different environments:

"In a study published in The New England Journal of Medicine, scientists found SARS-CoV-2, which causes the Covid-19 disease, was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, no longer than 24 hours on cardboard and up to three days on plastic and stainless steel.

The research, led by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), sought to mimic the virus being deposited from an infected person onto everyday surfaces in a household or hospital setting, such as through coughing or handling objects.

The findings highlight the main risk of contracting the virus after touching contaminated objects, but also the small danger of airborne transmission."