COVID-19

[Patcon]

7 hours ago, Av8ferg said:

Guys I really don’t get what’s going on here. To me it seems like an overreaction by government. We have had other viruses the past, the swine flu or the SARa virus or even the normal influenza that have killed more people than this current one it makes me wonder if the government knows something that we don’t know because they are taking such drastic measures and completely destroying the economy. I think we had over 30,000 deaths in the US last year from the normal influenza and currently worldwide there less than 8,200 deaths so it’s just doesn’t make sense to me. Cases are declining in China it seems like they’ve got this under control over there. Can any of you make sense of this?


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I have the same logic. Which makes me wonder, what don't I know. It's why I reserve my decision on whether all the forced closures are worth it or not

1 hour ago, Zed Head said:

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/14/21179714/coronavirus-covid-19-hospital-beds-china

Look at Korea & Japan. That is one reason why they have done as well with the virus as they have

@240260280

I read an article recently about crematoriums. In it the owner was talking about how much capacity he had with each unit. I did some back calculations based on Wuhans 3 crematoriums working 24/7 and 5 units each and the numbers were really serious. That doesn't include the portable capacity they brought in and the fact they were not worried about the PC aspects of no smell or ash discharge that require longer cremation times. I suspect your 60k is pretty close or even low. It wouldn't surprise me if they had 100k dead. I suspect, international governments are making decisions based on information we lack. such as the true death toll and total infections. That is why they are choosing to shut everything down

[Zed Head]

I had a general manager once, my bosses boss, who would not accept what our inventory of materials data clearly showed.  That we were going to run out of a certain material if we did not change the blend ratio of the materials, using less of the one that was going to run out in a couple of weeks.  The weekly inventory data had been tracked for months and charts and plots of the data clearly showed what was going to happen.  I showed him the data and the plots and explained that we needed to make a minor change to the blend to avoid a big disruption.   He listened and said "well, I'll believe that when i see it.  My GUT tells me different".  We ran out of material, had to run off-spec. and the chaos lasted for weeks.  He had a Chem. E. degree from one of the big Chicagoland universities.  I can still see that scene in my mind, years later.

Some people just have a knack for numbers and calculation, and trust the math, I guess, and some just go off of only what's right in front of them.  It's weird.  

[motorman7]

Nice chart, but I think the yellow line just reflects the number of test kits being distributed and used world wide as we are finally catching on.  China was way ahead of us and everyone else on that. 

Both US and S.Korea had first detected cases and death back in Jan 20.  Hard for me to believe that those first cases were isolated and slowly being passed along (as the yellow line shows) as this is quite contagious.  Personally, I think the real world cases would more closely track the Violet line shown below.  Were test kits fully available and every person with 'flu like' symptoms checked, we would see a much more smooth line, closer to the orange line of China in the beginning.  Without preventative measures to restrain the virus outside of China, the real number most likely exceeded the China cases back in late February and I am sure beyond what the yellow dots show today.

The wild card is an estimated 86% of COVID-19 carriers not being affected by the virus or showing any symptoms, which means now the numbers on the left should/could all be multiplied by 6.  Also, me and my entire office could be infected and none of us know it.  Between work, Costco, church, movies, restaurants, etc, exposure is virtually unavoidable.

Having said all this I think everyone would be well served to focus on keeping their immune system in good order.  Personally, I am making sure I get plenty of sleep, eating well, minimizing sugar (compromises the immune system), eating my probiotics, and washing my hands much better than I used to.  Just helping the body do it's job against the virus.

Anyway, nice to have a forum to discuss this.  It helps me to hear all sides on this as it is definitely on everyone's mind.

[Zed Head]

9 minutes ago, motorman7 said:

Having said all this I think everyone would be well served to focus on keeping their immune system in good order.  Personally, I am making sure I get plenty of sleep, eating well, minimizing sugar (compromises the immune system), eating my probiotics, and washing my hands much better than I used to.  Just helping the body do it's job against the virus.

This is where our views diverge.  Mine are about keeping everyone safe and alive, yours are about surviving and being safe yourself.  Nothing wrong with either, but that explains, I think, why people are approaching the discussion from different angles.

There will probably be reports soon of people getting shot because they had COVID-19.  "He was 5 feet away, I had to do it.  Obviously."

[grannyknot]

41 minutes ago, motorman7 said:

minimizing sugar (compromises the immune system)

oh oh,  I'm dead for sure.? ? ?

I would like to talk about the mortality rate, I have read that it is anywhere from less than 1% to 3.4% but the more people you test the lower the mortality percentage gets. Apparently most people only get mild symptoms and nothing more, if you only have mild symptoms the hospitals aren't going waste one of their scarce test kits on you.  So anyway you look at it the numbers are skewed.

Testing goes to people who are presenting as sick, what about the people that aren't?  If it ever comes out I suspect the actual mortality rate from this virus isn't going to be much higher than that of the day to day flu that we all know and love.

[Zed Head]

I went as conservative and as far to the right as I could find and I still get 10 times worse than flu.  Plus more contagious.  But, as our guy at the top says "just keep saying it until they believe it".

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/11/dr-anthony-fauci-estimates-coronavirus-mortality-rate-at-one-percent/

"Fauci said that the mortality rate for the common flu was 0.1 percent, which meant that the coronavirus was about ten times as lethal.

“This is ten times more lethal than the seasonal flu,” he said. “I think that’s something that people can get their arms around and understand.” "

 

[motorman7]

3 minutes ago, grannyknot said:

If it ever comes out I suspect the actual mortality rate from this virus isn't going to be much higher than that of the day to day flu that we all know and love.

I agree, I think it will be similar to flu but worse for elderly and not so bad for the young.   Only problem is that it will be in addition to flu, so will probably be an add on to our current virus mortality rate.  

By next year you will most likely get a coronavirus shot along with your flu shot.  Both will be 30% effective.

[motorman7]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/

This article shows lower mortality rates (still higher than flu) for those with 'symptomatic' infections. Interesting to know what the rate would be if you include the asymptomatic.   

Asymptomatic is a wild card.  What causes that? Blood type? Overall health? Diet? Gene's?  

Time will tell,  hoping for the best. 

[AK260]

Totally agree with the stats not being 100% honest / correct! Given the run on the markets I doubt any government is being truly transparent. In fact the measurement is clearly a problem in the first instance as pointed out.

I’ve heard and read some very entertaining conspiracy theories:

1. Our government is over reacting to a silly virus - they want to crash the system and get rid of cash so that they can track all our payments/activities.

2. This was done on purpose to reduce the older population of the planet.

3. It was a biological warfare experiment gone wrong.

4. It started in the US and spread like wildfire in Wuhan where conditions were right. The US clearly wanted to teach China a lesson.

5. The governments want to show you how much control they have over your life and now with a little virus can tell you when to leave your house or not!

I just can’t see how the view below is beneficial to any government:



On a more serious note, I’ve noticed much greater level of solidarity and unity in our local communities where people are banding together to look after each other. We are working on supporting low income families, ensuring food banks and packages reach those who need it the most, WhatsApp group for the entire road to ensure our elderly (or anyone) can reach out if they are in trouble, helping the less computer literate elderly set up home delivery for groceries etc. Meanwhile, at the supermarket the locusts are still hoovering up toilet rolls and pasta!!!

Meanwhile in the AK household, I’m hoarding sand / cement and lubricants! The former for getting all those jobs done in the next two weeks if they close the hardware stores, the latter for getting the Z sorted and ready for the summer! As a matter of interest, the “other” lubricants you may have thought of have also had a run on in the supermarket - not that I was looking to buy of course! ;) Just found it entertaining.

[AK260]

Erm?

[Av8ferg]

10 hours ago, Zed Head said:

I had a general manager once, my bosses boss, who would not accept what our inventory of materials data clearly showed.  That we were going to run out of a certain material if we did not change the blend ratio of the materials, using less of the one that was going to run out in a couple of weeks.  The weekly inventory data had been tracked for months and charts and plots of the data clearly showed what was going to happen.  I showed him the data and the plots and explained that we needed to make a minor change to the blend to avoid a big disruption.   He listened and said "well, I'll believe that when i see it.  My GUT tells me different".  We ran out of material, had to run off-spec. and the chaos lasted for weeks.  He had a Chem. E. degree from one of the big Chicagoland universities.  I can still see that scene in my mind, years later.

Some people just have a knack for numbers and calculation, and trust the math, I guess, and some just go off of only what's right in front of them.  It's weird.  

ZH what you are saying make perfect sense.  The one difference is the data you had was accurate and verifiable.  The data we’re getting is not...This I’m sure of,   This is why I think there is more than meets the eye here.  So, many will have a hard time hearing this but governments ALWAYS lie to protect their image and control the population .  If you disagree,  that’s okay but you might live in the same pen as the rest of the global sheep.  I’ve seen it first hand many time and was appalled,   I called it out and was shut down by very senior leadership.  One example: I was the lead aircraft dynamic strike planner for Libya in 2011.  I sat on the committee that approved every target and bomb that was dropped.  (Well over 3,600 strikes)  we had to do  intelligence confirmation and validation.  The NATO and US public relation strategy was simple.  We had a team who’s sole job was PR.  Influence the public to ensure OUR Operation could continue to meet our strategic goals, which were to remove Ghaddafi (who was trying to start an African gold backed currency to trade oil in and circumvent the US’s monopoly with OPEC of selling oil in US dollars only to the world market) (US dollars are backed by Oil, Debt and Military Power, not gold anymore) and support a Pro-US new government,  What did we tell the public “we had to do this to protect civilian lives in Libya”. This was 100% BS.  Libya supplies 25% of European oil and Nigeria was a big non OPEC global oil player too.  Why do you think Qutar and UAE and Saudi were so interested too in Libya....because they cared about civilian?  They didn’t give a crap about the millions  killed in Rwanda .  Do you think they gave one crap about the Libyan people?  My point is you never heard this .....sure civilians were being killed and we made that the hand we showed the people, but that was the cover story.   As far as COVID-19, the government must know this thing is worse that we are being told.  If they tells us how deadly it is there would be abstract panic....they don’t want that.  They want you to be just concerned enough to convince you to stay home,.  If they tell us 1.7 million American’s are going to die (which might be true) the public would go nuts and start hoarding everything and martial law would have to be instituted.  This Toilet Paper run would be nothing compared to what would happen.  I could be wrong but I’m convinced the government will lie if it has to, to get done what it thinks needs to happen to keep the peace.  Time will tell as this unfolds. 

[grannyknot]

@Av8ferg, that is refreshing to hear, I think the majority of us understand that for the most part all governments are self serving, right or left wing, 4 yrs then 4yrs...  The thing that concerns me is the shape of the world economy, not getting the sniffles.  Tens of millions of people live pay cheque to pay cheque and also carry large debt loads, no amount of tax funded "emergency benefits/loans" are going to fix that.  It seems like we are shooting ourselves in the foot.

Here is an interesting read, https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-pandemic-response-scientists-1.5502423