COVID-19

[motorman7]

 

As I said before, The chart above is a chart of Test Kit Production and has little relevance to the actual number of cases of COVID-19,which is easily 5X higher than this chart shows.  Not sure why you keep showing this chart.   It will be irrelevant until the number of kits equals those that show symptoms and are tested.  Then you can multiply by 5 and get a rough idea of actual cases.

 

ASYMPTOMATIC is the big issue here.

 

I have said this before, the item that makes this virus unique is that most people are ASYPMTOMATIC.  Italy said 75% of people are Asymptomatic, China says 86%.  This means roughly 4 out of 5 people will exhibit no symptoms at all, NONE!  Those with NO symptoms will most likely not go to get checked.  In the US, they won’t even look at you unless you have some kind of symptom.

Italy said their biggest problem was Asymptomatic spreaders.  They don’t even know they are carriers, and thus exert less or no caution.  

Germany tested those that were in contact with Symptomatic spreaders, so their number includes Asymptomatic people which is why their death rate number is so low.

[Zed Head]

10 minutes ago, motorman7 said:

Not sure why you keep showing this chart. 

It shows the trend.  Trends are actually more informative than single point data )my opinion).  Not sure why what you said before is more important than what other people have to say.  Yours is just one more opinion.  Glad to have them but no need to try to assert superiority.  Don't know your background or why you would know more than anyone else.  You're just another guy on the internet.

How did you come up with "easily 5X"?  Citations, please.

p.s. don't overlook the concept of "sampling".  Surveys never get all of the data.  They sample representative populations and project out.  Producing estimates and showing trends.  Which can be useful in understanding a problem.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Zed Head

[Mark Maras]

 Our son's girlfriend was tested for Covid19 ten days ago by Providence Health. No results back yet. They're stuck at home waiting when they could be working essential service jobs. I don't believe this administration is interested in real infection rate data. Wealth takes priority over health, as usual.

 Sign me

 Disgusted but hopeful.

[motorman7]

18 minutes ago, Zed Head said:

It shows the trend. 

It shows the rate of Test Kit Production which is very important.  However, it has no relevance to Mortality rate.

As for news articles:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/86-of-people-with-coronavirus-are-walking-around-undetected-study-says/

“Stealth” coronavirus cases are fueling the pandemic, with a staggering 86% of people infected walking around undetected, a new study says.

Six of every seven cases – 86% — were not reported in China before travel restrictions were implemented, driving the spread of the virus, according to a study Monday in the journal Science.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1165

In an open letter to the authorities in the Tuscany region,1 Romagnani wrote that the great majority of people infected with covid-19—50-75%—were asymptomatic, but represented “a formidable source” of contagion.

“The percentage of people infected, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases, particularly, but not only, among young people. Isolation of asymptomatics is essential for controlling the spread of the virus and the seriousness of the epidemic,” he said

___________

For what it is worth, I am an engineer and would consider myself an expert when it comes to data and statistics.  I have made my living from it for the last 35 years.  An expert in that I have made presentations to rooms of NASA scientists and engineers just to name a few, so I am extremely comfortable with data and charts.

 

[Zed Head]

1 minute ago, motorman7 said:

An expert in that I have made presentations to rooms of NASA scientists and engineers just to name a few, so I am extremely comfortable with data and charts.

So, where did "easily 5X" come from?

I have my own area of expertise.  It leads to questions like the one I've asked.

One of the problems with being smart is that people start to believe that everything that they think is correct.  They don't get questioned because they are known as "experts".  "He must know what he is talking about, he's an expert".  So, they get a little bit lazy.

In my field you have to show the math and the sources.  Otherwise it's just an opinion.  And everybody has one of those.

[motorman7]

19 minutes ago, Zed Head said:

So, where did "easily 5X" come from?

I took the average of 75% and 86% to come up with roughly 80% Asymptomatic.  80% is 4 out of 5, that is 4 out of every 5 are Asymptomatic.  Thus only 1 in 5 are Symptomatic.  To get the Total number of COVID-19 infected, I multiplied the number of Asymptomatic (1 in 5) by 5 to get the Total Covid-19 infected.  That is 5X

 

Note: this number does not include those that are just mildly sick from COVID-19 and don't get tested or thought perhaps they had the flu.  Thus the "easily 5X". 

Edited March 26, 2020 by motorman7

[240260280]

34 minutes ago, Mark Maras said:

 Our son's girlfriend was tested for Covid19 ten days ago by Providence Health. No results back yet. They're stuck at home waiting when they could be working essential service jobs. I don't believe this administration is interested in real infection rate data. Wealth takes priority over health, as usual.

 Sign me

 Disgusted but hopeful.

She's in our prayers.

[240260280]

These two guys analyze the data daily. Worth following:

John Campbell in UK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sy3gtORANw

Chris Martenson in USA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIp8DxCdoBo

 

Edited March 26, 2020 by 240260280

[Zed Head]

There is actually some good information in that first Science article.

You should just use your expertise to extract and interpret the data (edit - with the reasoning behind the interpretation.  Not just opinion form), if you want to add something to this thread.  The people at Johns Hopkins would be considered experts also, they produced the plot of confirmed cases.  If you have a problem with the plot, send them a message.  Your credentials should carry some weight.  It would be a lot more useful than piddling around in this thread.  At least for an expert NASA consultant.

Here's the email for the Johns Hopkins guy.  I actually sent him a message in the early days suggesting the per capita data would be more informative than what he was showing.  No reply.  Maybe you'll have better luck.

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

Edited March 26, 2020 by Zed Head

[Zed Head]

Here we go.  Trump will be classifying states by risk factor,. So if you get defined as high risk just jump in your car and head out to a place where you can party freely.

 

[Zed Head]

Flying.  Packed in an airplane.  Planes are still flying.  Apparently, if I read this right, some airlines are leaving the center seat open.  So at least you'll be two feet away from your neighbor.

"American will also block 50% of all middle seats and all seats adjacent to Flight Attendant jump seats on every flight."

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/American-Airlines-Adjusts-Food-and-Lounge-Service-in-Response-to-COVID-19-OPS-DIS-03/?c=EML|AADV|20200325|ADV|MKT|SOLO||Video_FB

Edited March 26, 2020 by Zed Head

[Zed Head]

@motorman7 I've realized, as I pointed out above, that your real beef is with Johns Hopkins.  They're well known as experts too, so us laypeople just have to choose among the experts.  If you can find a better graphical representation of what's happening that would be great.  Just like weather forecasts, they might not be perfect but they're a start.  Something to think about.