COVID-19

[Zed Head]

Perspective.  Any comparisons and calculations should be along the lines of what would the difference be if action had been taken sooner and also the effectiveness of actions.  And the effect of inaction.  Projections, total, are already at World War I levels.  And that's just the first year.  But the effect of delays and inactions, the increase above the best case scenario, could easily surpass Iraq and Afghanistan combined.  The media is not really grasping or discussing the numbers, in a leadership context.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war

[heyitsrama]

https://twitter.com/aalali44/status/1245546863102746624?s=20https://twitter.com/aalali44/status/1245546863102746624?shttps://twitter.com/aalali44/status/1245546863102746624?s=20

Fox New DR.

[Pilgrim]

Well, that does sum it up! Given the fact that the only real data we have is current hospitalizations and deaths, it's pretty hard to get an accurate estimate of scope. What we hear reported is projections of infections and deaths based on varying sets of assumptions.  There are lots of "if...then" calculations, mostly focused on various levels of actions that are being taken to suppress the peak number of infections.

What we can't report is the number of actual infections, because of two things: first, the number of tests available.  There aren't enough to establish the scope of the problem, so in most areas testing is restricted to people who already have symptoms.  NPR reported this AM that the entire state of Montana gets 600 tests per day. If they need more, tough toenails - that's all they get. So they're trying to use 500 per day and have a small reserve. To some degree this is reflected in most areas - they can't test to find out who *might* have it, just to confirm whether or not symptomatic people actually have it.

Second, we can't tell how many infections are present because of processing. In some areas (NPR report) processing times are up to 13 days. That's long enough for an entire set of infections to be passed along and start manifesting in a new group, so no timeline can be established in anything like real time - it's all retrospective that doesn't become visible for a couple of weeks.

After thinking this out and writing it, no wonder we're running so far behind. The failure to act when the first information was available, and the subsequent denial and stalling, has put us a couple of months behind the pandemic. That leads to a discussion of masks and other PPE, but I don't need to get into that in this post.

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Pilgrim

[AK260]

Just lost a relative to the virus and a friend of mine working on the frontline now has it with the classic fever, nausea and loss of sense of taste / smell!!!

 

Be very careful of your health people!!

 

[240260280]

I'm sorry. They are in our prayers.... praying a lot lately.

[Zed Head]

Cuomo is on.  Early today.  I think it's a mistake to have his brother Chris on at the end of the briefing but I guess people get blinders on when it comes to family.  Oh well.

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Zed Head

[Zed Head]

Son-in-law in Chief.  Can't blame him for avoiding standing next to his father-in-law on that podium.  Probably good that he's involved but it shows how incompetent the official channels are.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/01/jared-kushner-coronavirus-response-160553

[Zed Head]

Only because it fits with the previous post.  Where are the ventilators, the DPA, who's running the show...

The IHME model bumped up a bit today.  Worse than yesterday.  New norm.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/white-house-general-motors-defense-production-act-161833

[240260280]

I Luv Towelie

 

[motorman7]

Will be interesting to see how they lift the shelter in place decrees.  This article brings up some good points.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/professors-push-back-on-pandemic-models-be-honest-about-what-happens-after-lockdowns-are-lifted

Just an idea: given the state of our economy and unemployment, I think it would be smart to lift the shelter in place at the end of April starting with those individuals that are 30 and under.  Would be nice to get movies and restaurants open (and other businesses), while still applying some form of social distancing. Maybe every other table empty at restaurants, two seats in between movie goers.  I would still restrict large group gatherings.  Then after two weeks, make the age restriction 35 and over...and so on every two weeks.  (So I will be waiting a while here, for what it is worth).  There needs to be some way of portioning out the herd-immunity without overwhelming the medical system, assuming a vaccine is not available in short order.

 

Somewhat unrelated: The geek in me has now set up an excel chart to track and graph the deaths in each individual state to see where each state is at on the bell curve.  Also, will be interesting to see if we get 'double bells' (two side by side bells) when lockdown ends.  Unfortunately, this is going to get very ugly over the next two weeks.  The US confirmed cases already tell that story.

 

 

[Zed Head]

The authors might have started writing their paper before the various daily briefings.  The focus from everything I've seen has been on not overwhelming the medical system.  They're drawing lines on the curve charts to show the limit of the medical system.  The lives saved is due to the ability to get everyone on to a ventilator that needs one, plus to give the patients the normal care that a caregiver can give when they're not beaten down by having too many patients to deal with.  The authors don't really seem to address that aspect.  They're just saying the the same people will die, like they're ignoring the medical care issue.

I see a paper that was published even though it didn't fit the reality of the time it was published.  Not uncommon.  They put the work in and want to see it in print.  Ironically, considering the title and the initial statements, that is dishonest.

[Zed Head]

He's come out of the shadows.

Jared Kushner speaks at the task force briefing

The president’s son in law said the president asked him to “break down every barrier” to help the effort.