COVID-19

[Zed Head]

Here's a good article about mathematical models.  They're all wrong, but still better than nothing.  (Isn't it funny how clever phrase really aren't very clever.  Was that statement clever...?)

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/modeling-coronavirus-be-it-uws-or-others-uncertainty-is-the-only-certainty

[Zed Head]

Hydroxychloroquine, a gift from heaven.  Take a chance!  What do you have to lose?

 

[zKars]

Here is common sense advice from a real doctor with real front line experience to help you and those close to you. All the details you need to know, and answers to all the questions I've had. 

Best I have seen by far, in every possible way. I have a new hero, Dr. Dave Price

 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by zKars

[siteunseen]

I'm still unsure how it came about, not that it matters now I'd just like to know. Natural or engineered? Will we ever know this, can it be proven?

I know my 240 wouldn't run more than 5 minutes because of the crud in the fuel tank. Once I figured that out I fixed it. If this virus has no definite source how can it be fixed? 

I'm ignorant, not stupid so laugh all you want but 90% of the world is thinking the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[zKars]

There are no stupid questions about this. At the very end, the doc says some stuff about what happens with this virus long term. The detail I picked out is that all the viruses, including all the variants of the common cold, become weaker with time, and simply enter the rotation of viruses we already have anti-bodies to, and if you do get it, it will be no more severe than the average cold.

This particular one is just new, so NO ONE has immunity yet (well, some do now....) and it’s a bit of a nasty one, spreads easily (no kidding), and it’s killing lots of folks. So until we control it short term (distancing, wash hands, NTDF (no toucha da face)), a vaccine finally gets distributed, and enough time passes, the danger persists.

As to origin, good luck ever learning the truth about that one. Viruses have been coming to reality for a long time with no Intentional human interference. The whole mutation thing. New ones pop up all the time. Very few get out into the general population the way this one did. Hopefully we are learning what to do (And not do) next time. 

 

[Zed Head]

1 hour ago, zKars said:

Here is common sense advice from a real doctor with real front line experience to help you and those close to you. All the details you need to know, and answers to all the questions I've had. 

Best I have seen by far, in every possible way. I have a new hero, Dr. Dave Price

But who is he, and how do you know that he knows what he's talking about?  I work with many highly educated people and they all think that they know more than the next guy.  It's just one of those things about "smart" people.  It's a comforting video but is it based on solid scientific evidence?  The guy only has one publication, and he's the third author.  The place in the author list tells the level of the contribution to the paper. 

Edit - wait.  There must be an old version of the page I linked out there.  There's a new one with more publications I added it.  Still,  his publications have nothing to do with infectious diseases.  I don't know why he would think that he's more qualified than most to make his assertions.

Hate to be a buzzkill, I really do, but I really do know a lot of people like this and I think I could easily go out to the interweb and find another guy, probably with better credentials, who says that aerosol transmission is real.  I guess it doesn't matter much, impact-wise, because he's still saying that wearing a mask is a good idea.  Just for different reasons.

Sorry, seriously.  I always check the sources though.  He's probably looking for his own source of confidence himself.  He even implied it at the beginning of his video.  He's kind of talking to himself.  And, to be blunt, he's really not qualified to be making a public service video.  He just isn't.  He just got through his residency, he's a new doctor.

Anyway, it's generally good advice but it will lead to people who think that they might be sick not worrying about blowing aerosol all over.  Because this guy says it's not a factor.  If he's wrong, he could cause many more infections.  He didn't cite a single source for his "belief" about aerosol.

https://medicine.weill.cornell.edu/sites/default/files/pulm_recent_grads.pdf

https://medicine.weill.cornell.edu/sites/default/files/pulm_fellows_2016-19.pdf

Edited April 7, 2020 by Zed Head

[Zed Head]

Here's some aerosol research, published in the New England Journal of Medicine.  Half-life is the time it takes for half of the material to disappear or degrade.  So, at 1.1 - 1.2 hours, there is still half as much aerosol material left floating and active.

I wish it wasn't so.  But it seems to be.  The list of authors is at the bottom of the Letter.  There is a bunch.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

"The half-lives of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 were similar in aerosols, with median estimates of approximately 1.1 to 1.2 hours"

"Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days (depending on the inoculum shed). "

[Pilgrim]

It is not required to know the genesis of a disease outbreak like this. Helpful, but not required. I doubt much of the world is focused on that question at this point; it will be a subject of inquiry later, but right now other concerns are more urgent.

At this point, my analysis of what people need to know is: how the disease is transmitted between humans (reasonably well understood), how to minimize its spread (not as well known), how to treat existing cases more effectively, and how/whether a vaccine can be developed. It would also be very helpful to determine whether having had the disease confers immunity to re-infection and confirm that those who have had the disease are not carriers.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Pilgrim

[grannyknot]

4 hours ago, Zed Head said:

This graphic shows the timeline.  Look at how much time we had to prepare, that was wasted.  

Exactly,  it's everyone else who takes the blame but not the Commander and Chief.

[Zed Head]

I hate to keep piling on.  But I found an interview with Dr. Fauci where he goes in to detail about masks and aerosols.  I also realized that Dr. Price's video message was focused on keeping a person's "circle" of family and friends safe, along with the concerned person.  But he didn't really talk about keeping people outside the circle safe.  By not being an unwitting spreader of the virus.  

The part about masks starts around 4:20.  Hard to argue against Dr. Fauci.  He's been around.  Look at where he's giving the interview.

 

[Pilgrim]

2 minutes ago, grannyknot said:

Exactly,  it's everyone else who takes the blame but not the Commander and Chief.

It's not piling on. The pandemic has brought Trump's failures as a leader into focus. I am convinced that solutions will be found by good people who are highly motivated, and hopefully he won't impede implementation of those solutions for political reasons.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/americans-are-paying-the-price-for-trumps-failures/609532/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share&fbclid=IwAR2HsDI_zFYE2bbnYZIkBTHbx20uNk9BrUyYEG2k2swsHjwtGLz_0uCdTcY

Edited April 7, 2020 by Pilgrim

[grannyknot]

15 minutes ago, Pilgrim said:

Here's some documentation: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/americans-are-paying-the-price-for-trumps-failures/609532/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share&fbclid=IwAR2HsDI_zFYE2bbnYZIkBTHbx20uNk9BrUyYEG2k2swsHjwtGLz_0uCdTcY

That's a pretty air tight case.