COVID-19

[motorman7]

3 hours ago, 240260280 said:

?  I worked at an Earth Station using Intersputnik and Intelsat birds throughout the 90's.  We won a contract to be a TT&C site for INMARSAT and were involved in getting 5 satellites in orbit. 2 Ariane, 1 Proton, 1 MacDonald-Douglas and 1 Martin Mariette. 

Interesting,  this was really fun work back then.  I worked for a division of Lockheed Martin, ILS.  I think it is now part of ULA with Boeing. I worked on Intelsat and  was project manager for the Sirius Satellite launches on the Proton.  Fun stuff.  This was back in the 90's, early 2000.

[Zed Head]

This time we just need to pay attention.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/wuhan-celebrates-its-liberation-as-covid-19-lockdown-ends

[Pilgrim]

Wow... Just found this animated chart of COVID vs. other causes of death.

Take a look, takes 20 seconds or so... https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1812248/?fbclid=IwAR2nmnJefJvZ40SgimD6vDDKOgUjWMUi3dYOraH7rsCu1T6FRxBue7u9Ck4

Edited April 12, 2020 by Pilgrim

[Zed Head]

That is a good chart, at the end.  COVID-19 is #1 now.  Edit -  See my other post below.  

 

Here are a couple more interesting articles, one about Brazil's big experiment, and another about the virus itself.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/bolsonaro-dragging-brazil-towards-coronavirus-calamity-experts-fear

Brazil has not been affected much, at least as far as the collected data shows.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Here's the latest on what's known about the virus itself.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/five-months-on-what-scientists-now-know-about-the-coronavirus

Edited April 12, 2020 by Zed Head

[motorman7]

1 hour ago, Pilgrim said:

Wow... Just found this animated chart of COVID vs. other causes of death.

Take a look, takes 20 seconds or so... https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1812248/?fbclid=IwAR2nmnJefJvZ40SgimD6vDDKOgUjWMUi3dYOraH7rsCu1T6FRxBue7u9Ck4

This animated chart GROSSLY misrepresents the fatality of the COVID virus.  More high schoolers at work here .  There really should be someone that does quality checks on this stuff instead of allowing idiots to misrepresent information.

Let's do a little simple math.  The average of the deaths shown in blue is the average daily deaths over the course of a year in the US. At 1774 deaths per day, Heart Disease is by far the most common killer at rough 647,000 people per year in the US.  This is true and is shown correctly as are the other diseases shown in blue. 

The data for the COVID deaths, to be on the same playingfield as the other data shown, should be divided by  the days that have past starting on Jan 1, 2020 since we don't have any previous annual data.  The daily average is the number of total COVID deaths divided by the number of days that have past.  That would be 21,370 divided by 102 days (in 2020) equals 209 deaths per day average.  So right now it should be shown just below Diabetes on the chart.

Lets assume 60K covid deaths for the year, Average is 164 deaths per day for the year, just below Diabetes.

Let's assume 100K covid deaths for the year, average is 273 deaths for the year, just above Diabetes

Yes, the current daily deaths are much higher than that, but honestly, we are probably at a peak. 1842 is not the average. At 1842 deaths per day, the total for the year would be 672,000 for the year....currently 5 times more than the total WORLD deaths.  OMG

____________________________________________

That being said, here is today's chart update.  Significant drop from yesterday m0stly due to New York and Michigan's lower numbers.  Most other states were pretty flat.

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by motorman7

[Zed Head]

You forgot to cite your data sources motorman.  Edit - the cancer numbers in your response to the animation.  You're using numbers but we can't tell where you got them.  Of course, we all have the Google, but still, citations are standard practice for professionals.  

The Flourish people just seem to be graphics artists.  They probably just picked some Google sites and cobbled together an animation.  But, without sources cited, we're all in the same boat.  Floating around in a sea of random numbers.

https://flourish.studio/blog/

Edited April 12, 2020 by Zed Head

[Pilgrim]

Regardless of whether or not CO-19 is the #1 cause of deaths in the US right now, the fact remains that we're individually better off staying away from close contact with others.

Now, we all realize that this can't go on indefinitely.  It would be a plus if I had faith in the current administration to believe that they are thoughtfully comparing strategies for exiting the lockdown, because we really need a thoughtful approach based on what is known and what is learned in the US and in other countries. 

There is no evidence that this is happening, and it should have been in the works for some time.

Sweden has gotten a lot of press because of their tiered approach with lower risk people having more freedom of movement.  Is it working? I think that's open to question, but whatinhell is the Trump admin doing to study it? Why aren't they they telling us about the kinds of studies they are doing instead of having the Cheeto in Chief do daily ego-stroking sessions? (Don't bother to answer, the Cheeto's insistence on ego boosting is the answer.) 

Regardless, we are going to have to change the rules for the lockdown before we run the economy too deep in the ditch. We need a well-researched, thoughtful way to start opening up the country, but not one that depends on the data "in here" (Trump's orange-tinted head, as per his recent press conference remarks.) 

Any competent administrator would have been working on this for weeks, and would make some attempt to tell the US what their plan is for gathering information and making decisions...or at least reassure us that they're working on such a plan. Instead we're waiting for Trump to find the data in his orange head ("in here...") and come up with some pasted-together overly simple idea. This is not promising.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Pilgrim

[motorman7]

1 hour ago, Zed Head said:

You forgot to cite your data sources motorman.  Edit - the cancer numbers in your response to the animation.  You're using numbers but we can't tell where you got them.  Of course, we all have the Google, but still, citations are standard practice for professionals.  

Professionals also show respect to one another even when opinions disagree.

Honestly, no need to site anything.  The blue items were shown by the pulic.flourish people.  I was not contesting that all.  You did not seem to take issue with that in your earlier post.  

2 hours ago, Zed Head said:

That is a good chart, at the end.  COVID-19 is #1 now.

 the Covid data is all on the chart in the post, and the source has been previously referenced.  

The math and averaging is pretty basic.  Hopefully, no need to teach there.  Just saying.

[motorman7]

1 hour ago, Pilgrim said:

Regardless of whether or not CO-19 is the #1 cause of deaths in the US right now, the fact remains that we're individually better off staying away from close contact with others.

Seriously!  Can you tell me the number of people that died of heart disease each day over the last week? Numbers are technically pretty close. Given the variation, you could be very wrong with that statement.  Would you have been able to make that statement one week ago? (FYI, answer is NO if you check my charts)  Will you be able to make that statement in a week or two?   

Honestly, I am not trying to belittle or make small the Covid issue.  Let's just keep it in perspective.  Fully support social distancing, limiting gathering sizes, face masks, etc.  But let's look at the big picture.

[240260280]

F**K... will all the countries just copy Taiwan's policies, protocols and procedures!

They stopped the virus in its tracks back in January.... they watch China like hawks and don't drink the Kool Aid.

Edited April 12, 2020 by 240260280

[Zed Head]

Here's the CDC site's mortality data.  Looks like it might be your source. That Flourish site doesn't cite their data sources either.  I'm guessing that they just used the daily death reports for COVID-19, two days worth shown below, and probably just took something like the CDC data and did some math.  I don't know.  My point was that without the source and the explanation of method you just don't know what anyone did. 

Not sure why you estimated an average to get COIVD-19 deaths..  Flourish was just showing how reported daily deaths are growing, compared to other causes of death.  They calculated daily deaths and showed how the daily reported deaths had finally overtaken the other death causes, on a daily basis.

It's just my nature to examine the source of anybody's claims.  There are experts who post on this forum who have obvious inclinations to skew the facts to make a point.  Humans are fallible.  I'm not saying that you do that, just that it can happen.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Edited April 13, 2020 by Zed Head

[Pilgrim]

6 hours ago, motorman7 said:

Seriously!  Can you tell me the number of people that died of heart disease each day over the last week? Numbers are technically pretty close. Given the variation, you could be very wrong with that statement.  Would you have been able to make that statement one week ago? (FYI, answer is NO if you check my charts)  Will you be able to make that statement in a week or two?   

Honestly, I am not trying to belittle or make small the Covid issue.  Let's just keep it in perspective.  Fully support social distancing, limiting gathering sizes, face masks, etc.  But let's look at the big picture.

Heart attack stats are irrelevant to how we combat CO-19. Can you tell me I'm wrong and support it with numbers? Of course not. I stand by the statement. It is not debatable.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Pilgrim