COVID-19

[Zed Head]

A super nerdy paper about the pandemic from the uber-nerd bill Gates.  The first few paragraphs, at least, are readable and worth reading.  I just started reading it.  It was published yesterday.

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation

[240260280]

It is more complicated.  Many infected will not have immunity and immunity will not last for many others so this thing will be with us like AIDS.... except you catch it by simply breathing.  And I don't compare to AIDS lightly as the T cells that are attacked by the Wuhan virus just like in AIDS. The only difference seems to be that the infected T cells do not hatch more virus to attack more T cells like in AIDS.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3079443/coronavirus-could-target-immune-system-targeting-protective

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52425825

Edited April 25, 2020 by 240260280

[Pilgrim]

Latest report from the WHO indicates that immunity from CO-19 after having had it is NOT assured. This isn't the news we want, but reports on this topic are still inconsistent. 

I think most people are assuming that if they've had CO-19 they will be immune to it afterward. This belief is clearly not justified at this time. 

I am making no assumptions about this...nor will I risk my health by assumptions.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/25/844939777/no-evidence-that-recovered-covid-19-patients-are-immune-who-says?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&fbclid=IwAR2W_YINMD4BHYFYSyGoZA7YDiS1cjft9gXGN3xL10fJQ197ig-2u_OUHzQ&fbclid=IwAR0EqEddpncI7FAZcevMitOuSd6wMtCS-hAyAGu6wAsnsVmbXgTuOllqE-Q&fbclid=IwAR3lVdmzofVG4j1qlpazNMSUym427-B6jOErF80wWLOIWDLk4i8PU-My3bE

Edited April 25, 2020 by Pilgrim

[jonbill]

It is more complicated.  Many infected will not have immunity and immunity will not last for many others so this thing will be with us like AIDS.... except you catch it by simply breathing.  And I don't compare to AIDS lightly as the T cells that are attacked by the Wuhan virus just like in AIDS. The only difference seems to be that the infected T cells do not hatch more virus to attack more T cells like in AIDS.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3079443/coronavirus-could-target-immune-system-targeting-protective
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52425825

This is probably the paper the scmp made their story from.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-0424-9#Fig1

it concludes that their research is inconclusive. It doesn't present any evidence that the virus disables the immune system like HIV. it says the infection of T cells is abortive, i.e. a failure.

fwiw, chicken pox and flu both also infect T cells.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6115886/

[Zed Head]

This web site also has some good analysis and explanation.  Here is today's.  The US is stuck at about 2,000 deaths per day.  54,247 total as of now.  "Opening up" is not going to cause the numbers to drop.

https://www.mdmetrix.com/covid-19-projections

Update for April 25, 2020

New York remains the only state with data signals indicating a stable descent path for reported daily deaths from COVID-19 (now at 15 days).The U.S. as a whole has left its exponential growth phase but has remained in a 20-day plateau phase. We’ll continue to monitor for data signals that would indicate a transition for the US onto a descent path.Encouragingly, there are now 15 states (California, Florida, Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee, Washington, and Wisconsin) with overlapping data signals indicating they have left their exponential growth phase. We’ll continue to update the death curve charts, and will monitor whether these states show signals of improving further (entering a descent phase) or deteriorate (resuming an exponential growth phase).

—Dr. Dan Low, Chief Medical Officer of MDmetrix

[motorman7]

3 hours ago, Zed Head said:

This web site also has some good analysis and explanation.  Here is today's.  The US is stuck at about 2,000 deaths per day.  54,247 total as of now.  "Opening up" is not going to cause the numbers to drop.

https://www.mdmetrix.com/covid-19-projections

Update for April 25, 2020

New York remains the only state with data signals indicating a stable descent path for reported daily deaths from COVID-19 (now at 15 days).The U.S. as a whole has left its exponential growth phase but has remained in a 20-day plateau phase. We’ll continue to monitor for data signals that would indicate a transition for the US onto a descent path.Encouragingly, there are now 15 states (California, Florida, Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee, Washington, and Wisconsin) with overlapping data signals indicating they have left their exponential growth phase. We’ll continue to update the death curve charts, and will monitor whether these states show signals of improving further (entering a descent phase) or deteriorate (resuming an exponential growth phase).

—Dr. Dan Low, Chief Medical Officer of MDmetrix

Interesting assessment.  While I whole-heartedly agree with the New York comment and would also throw New jersey into that same category and maybe Louisiana, I do not agree with some of the 15 states that he has mentioned as being 'Encouraging'.  California, Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee and Wisconsin charts look terrible for both new infections and death.  On the right side of the charts for these states, the numbers are all going up, and some are at or near their all time highs for new infections and deaths (and these will most likely continue up).  The reason that these states have data points to the right of the red exponential curve was because of the lockdown.  The lockdown artificially flattened the red exponential curve and moved the exponential lift to the right.  Now these states are continuing  along with an increasing trajectory, only they have shifted the exponential to the right ( and crushed their economy in the meantime).  This is going to get much worse for the states I noted above. They should really re-plot the red line for all of the charts.

New York and New Jersey are in the best shape right now.  They are on the right side of the bell curve, have the largest herd immunity, and have fought the war.  The other governors of the states I noted above are going to have to get off their PS4 'Call of Duty' Games and start fighting the real battle.  

[240260280]

Bats, dogs, cats, tigers, lions, MINK, humans.

Next up, birds, pigs, and cattle.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-netherlands-mink/mink-found-to-have-coronavirus-on-two-dutch-farms-ministry-idUSKCN2280FZ?il=0

 

 

[Zed Head]

Here's another good use of the Johns Hopkins data.  The graphic is not so dramatic as others, easier to get a feel for what's happening.  It would be good if somebody could use this form of illustration and animate it, showing growth and spread from the beginning.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

[Zed Head]

People in a hurry...

A Louisiana pastor held services at his church today in defiance of house arrest orders following an assault charge stemming from his decision to hold mass gatherings that flouted public health orders.

The Associated Press reports:

A livestream from Life Tabernacle Church on Sunday showed Tony Spell walking among more than 100 congregants, often repeating the phrase, “I’ve just got to get to Jesus. ... Come on America, let’s get back to Jesus.” Nearly all parishioners were not wearing face masks, and social distancing was not being practiced.

The police department in Central, a suburb Baton Rouge, says on their Facebook page that Spell turned himself into the department last week on charges of aggravated assault and improper backing.

Trey Bennett has kept up a one-man demonstration in front of the church since Easter Sunday, when he noticed hundreds of parishioners still attending services in defiance of the state’s stay-at-home mandate, which bans gatherings of more than 10 people. Houses of worship across Louisiana have turned to online services instead.

Last Sunday, Spell drove a church bus in reverse in the direction of the sign-holding protester. Spell already faces misdemeanor charges for holding in-person church services despite the ban on gatherings.

Dozens of Spell’s parishioners met him at the East Baton Rouge Parish prison, dressed in their Sunday best, arrived in church buses to show support. In a livestream from the church, images including photos from Spell’s arrest, as well as information for a GoFundMe account to help with his legal costs, played over music being performed at the church.

[Pilgrim]

Some of them may "meet Jesus" sooner than they planned.

[siteunseen]

Unfortunately my dog's food ran out so I had to go to Walmart this morning.  Workers there, 10% were wearing mask, about twice that had them pulled down so they could talk to each other.  All young people.  I've convinced myself, so as not to go postal on the idiots, they've never had the flu.  I have and it's life changing wishing I was dead instead.  

I think mask should be like seatbelts during this, mandatory with no excuses.

I bought two 40lb bags instead of one.  Hope the dog doesn't get killed.

 

[Pilgrim]

There are people all over who either dodn't pay attention or take the first sign of relaxing any restraints as permission to cancel all cautions.

In today's society, Darwin's penalties on those folks are not as harsh as they would have been 100 years ago.