COVID-19

[Mark Maras]

The line drawn between religions and cults is often a belief in God versus a belief in a charismatic leader. Too many people end up feasting on the menu and never get to the meal.

[siteunseen]

Yeah, feed me! Save the talking.

[Zed Head]

Here's another tracker.  They have a Twitter thing also.  It was put together by reporters and seems to have that"right now" style to it.  Makes good "news" but not as useful as watching trends.  Dramatic statements about what "just happened", followed by disclaimers.

https://covidtracking.com/

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1254519919925837824&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2020%2Fapr%2F26%2Fcoronavirus-us-latest-news-trump-birx-cuomo-updates

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Zed Head

[Zed Head]

This is surprising.  The UK has a terrible death per capita ratio, along with France, considering that they are both "developed" countries with health care that is essentially socialized.  The USA is at 167 today, but, of course, we're still early.  Makes you wonder what the point of advanced "civilization" is.

[Namerow]

Shifting topics for a moment, here's a useful op-ed piece in today's Toronto Globe & Mail about the two-way value of masks.  The writer is, "a retired public health specialist and epidemiologist... [with] more than 30 years of experience, including 23 with the Public Health Agency of Canada, where he actively participated in previous outbreaks of SARS, H5N1, H1N1 and H7N9."

"Masks protect the wearer, too - and lower our risk for contracting COVID-19"

I, for one, have been surprised the dialog that's emerged over the past few weeks to the effect that masks have value only for protecting others.  I ask myself, 'When I'm wearing a mask while I'm sandblasting or spray-painting, am I really doing that because I'm trying to protect someone else?'

[Zed Head]

A funny story that leads to a guy whose Tweets are worth reading, I think.  The Australia view.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/australian-nobel-prize-winning-immunologist-accidentally-twitter-drink-dan-murphys

https://twitter.com/ProfPCDoherty

[motorman7]

Looks like we may be over the top now and on the down side of the bell curve as a nation. New York is definitely on the down side, maybe California?  There are still a few states where the numbers are increasing, but most seem to be tailing off, which is a good sign.  Maybe the warmer weather will help.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the coming weeks.  People are getting a little tired of the quarantine and lack of jobs/money.

 

 

[Zed Head]

31 minutes ago, motorman7 said:

Looks like we may be over the top now and on the down side of the bell curve as a nation. 

There's only a bell curve if we stay "closed".  "Opening" will change the curve.

[motorman7]

21 hours ago, Zed Head said:

There's only a bell curve if we stay "closed".  "Opening" will change the curve.

Unfortunately, that is true.  We are artificially flattening the curve which I believe  will do us more harm than good in the long run.  We are running from the problem right now and our only hope is a 'silver bullet'.  Funny thing, maybe it's smoking.  Ayn Rand would be proud (All her 'hero' characters smoked).

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/scientists-must-discover-why-so-few-coronavirus-patients-are-smokers

 

I still think Sweden is doing the best job as a country and their social distancing rules are pretty much spot on.  I would add more mask usage though. Their curves are almost perfect and there is no need to start loosening restrictions as they are fairly loose already.  The ones they have in place are reasonable and they are on the downside of the bell curve with large herd immunity.  In the US, I think we are going to stay pretty flat and the drop off will happen VERY slowly.

Here are some of Sweden's data and charts.  

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

Chart comment: After looking at this data of death by age group, I would be pretty pissed about the whole lockdown if I were 50 or under (More than I am already, if that could be possible).  The death rate is incredibly low for those 50 and under. We knew this from the crappy China data.  Unfortunately, the old folks running the show are penalizing the young for no reason, in my opinion.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105753/cumulative-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102193/coronavirus-cases-development-in-sweden/

 

Also, I noticed IHME now has the total at over 74K.  That number is low.  We will hit pretty close to 100K......unless we all start smoking maybe?

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

Also, new cases are rising in most of the states.  I think it's because people are getting antsy and tired of the lockdown.  

https://covid-19.mdmetrix.com/grid.html?list=new_case_curve  Check out the right side of the curves.  Most are increasing and this is daily data, not cumulative.

 

https://www.mdmetrix.com/covid-19-projections

"Update for April 28, 2020

New York remains on its 18-day descent path for reported daily deaths from COVID-19. Louisiana also has entered a descent phase, with the last 16 days' data signals indicating a stable decline (albeit with a shallow downward slope). We’ll monitor closely as Louisiana begins "phase 1 reopening" this week.

Encouragingly, 18 additional states continue to show overlapping data signals indicating that they have moved away from the exponential growth curve for reported daily deaths and are now on an extended plateau: Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin.

—Dr. Dan Low, Chief Medical Officer of MDmetrixI "

I agree with the first paragraph and would add New Jersey to that list.  I still contend that the second paragraph is badly mistaken.  These have been artificially flattened and the initial exponential is no longer valid.  The data points on the far right for new cases are increasing in many of those states the Dr listed.  That typically means more deaths. 

 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by motorman7

[Zed Head]

Just now, motorman7 said:

Unfortunately, that is true.  We are artificially flattening the curve which I believe  will do us more harm than good in the long run.  We are running from the problem right now and our only hope is a 'silver bullet'. 

It's odd how you keep overlooking the fact that staying within the capacity of the healthcare system saves lives.  You should watch Governor Cuomo's morning briefings.  He understands this and explains it very well, and is planning re-opening based on that principle.  He has an actual long-term plan.

A healthcare system that is at full capacity cannot care for any new patients, no matter what their problem.  Car crashes, overdoes, assaults, etc. all get left outside because the system is full.  The main point of flattening the curve is to have some capacity left for the rest of the patients.  The alternative is to reject all of the COVID-19 patients because it's an inconvenience.  Aside from the moral aspects, doctors have taken an oath, the Hippocratic oath, to take care of all patients.

I can't really imagine a society where we're out and about, spreading disease, because we want to go see a movie or workout in the gym.

I understand the economic reasons, working to produce the things we need to live, and things that can be produced at low risk.  But trading lives for personal enjoyment is unimaginable.

I guess it boils down the definition of harm and good.

[motorman7]

1 minute ago, Zed Head said:

A healthcare system that is at full capacity cannot care for any new patients, no matter what their problem.  Car crashes, overdoes, assaults, etc. all get left outside because the system is full.  The main point of flattening the curve is to have some capacity left for the rest of the patients.  The alternative is to reject all of the COVID-19 patients because it's an inconvenience.  Aside from the moral aspects, doctors have taken an oath, the Hippocratic oath, to take care of all patients.

Unfortunately, I live in SoCal.  You do not even want me to start referencing all of the articles up and down the state here of empty hospitals and furloughed doctors and nurses in this state. There is probably a balance in between the two states.  As  I have said before, New York is in the best position right now.

[Zed Head]

If only there was somebody, a group or organization, that could identify the differences between the various regions of the country, and create a plan to coordinate opening them all, with, also, the authority and the means to implement the plan.  Too bad that doesn't exist...