COVID-19

[motorman7]

And here are the latest charts.  Looks like we have the weekend swoon again.  

[Zed Head]

43 minutes ago, motorman7 said:

While Sweden may continue to take a lot of heat, they are just about done with the race and on the right side of the bell curve.  I do not think that the US is there yet.....except for maybe NY and NJ.

I don't think that this can be determined yet.  Herd immunity is at about 80% apparently.  Unless they've done enough testing to draw that inference they're not "done" with it.  Unless you man almost all of the old people are dead.

I don't want to get in to politics, but maybe you're not aware that the National Review is a super conservative magazine.  You could probably call it "ultra" conservative.  I used to read it about ten years ago when the spectrum from left to right was much narrower.  

Anyway, my point about that magazine is that they would be the views of the hard right.  Everything's rosy, we need to start making money again.  Inherently biased toward the "let them die" view.  People are responsible for their own destiny, you're all on your own, get your own PPE, I've got mine.

Ten years ago they seemed more rational.

https://www.nationalreview.com/

[Zed Head]

Here's a left of center view.  Not as left as some, but probably not center

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/dont-judge-swedens-light-touch-on-covid-19-yet-says-minister

[Zed Head]

The IHME has revised its analysis.  Double the projected deaths.  134,475 by August 4.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

"What do all of these death model updates mean? Overall, these modeling improvements have resulted in considerably higher projections of cumulative COVID-19 deaths through August, primarily due to longer peaks and slower declines for locations that have passed their peaks. The magnitude of these effects vary by location, and uncertainty intervals still overlap considerably for many places. The mean cumulative projections shown in our online visualization tool and available for download are generally higher for currently included locations.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Zed Head

[motorman7]

9 minutes ago, Zed Head said:

The IHME has revised its analysis.  Double the projected deaths.  134,475 by August 4.

Yes, that sounds about right, and I am guessing 200K or more by December.    Earlier, the IMHE charts showed 0 deaths per day once we hit the end of June, which is why it was lower. Now they have it continually increasing which is what we will actually see .   Personally, I don't think this goes away in the summer.  I am guessing it will thin out a bit in the summer and come back again next winter.

Also, I think we will see a higher peak than we did in mid-April on the charts.  We moved the bell top to the right and a bit lower with the lock down. The peak will probably hit in early June and I am guessing that will be the top.  I don't think the winter peak will be as high.

For magazines, I do try and avoid extremes and politically charged headlines.  Really, I just want to see the data.  It's what I do.  Wife calls me 'Spock' and 'Joe Friday', just the facts ma'm.  Occasionally, I get political, but I do try and keep it to a minimum.

 

[240260280]

Evidence  building and pointing to lab in China:

 

https://www.wionews.com/opinions-blogs/how-us-expertise-may-have-inadvertently-contributed-to-covid-19-296512

 

https://medium.com/@yurideigin/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748

 

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by 240260280

[Zed Head]

Never mind.  We all have our obsessions.  That's the point of the forum...

Edited May 5, 2020 by Zed Head

[Zed Head]

Seeking the sources for the stories about the source.  Occam's Razor.  Reduce to the essence. Then ask "why would this be true?".   

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/five-eyes-network-contradicts-theory-covid-19-leaked-from-lab

Australia’s Daily Telegraph – a Sydney tabloid owned by Rupert Murdoch – has been focusing on the Wuhan lab for several days, culminating in a weekend report which cited a 15-page dossier compiled, it said, by “concerned Western governments” amid an investigation by British and other members of the Five Eyes intelligence agencies.

Intelligence sources in Australia were quick to say they believed it was based on open source, public domain material. One told the Guardian they believed the information that appeared in the News Corp title was most likely to have originally come from the US: “My instinct is that it was a tool for building a counter-narrative and applying pressure to China. So it’s the intent behind it that’s most important. So possibly open source leads with a classification slapped on it.”

[240260280]

One of the most contagious viruses ever, has no reserve in nature  (even Ebola and SARS have these) and it appears in the middle of a huge city where a known scientist has been altering Bat viruses for the last decade (and much of her research on this has been published).

 

Janet and I figured $^!# hit the fan from a lab in early Jan when we saw images like this on TV (for a virus that did not pass human-to-human).

 

[Zed Head]

4 minutes ago, 240260280 said:

 

Janet and I figured $^!# hit the fan from a lab in early Jan when we saw images like this on TV (for a virus that did not pass human-to-human).

 

Is that from 2001 Space Odyssey?  Just saw that the other night.  Weird coincidence.

[Pilgrim]

15 minutes ago, Zed Head said:

 One told the Guardian they believed the information that appeared in the News Corp title was most likely to have originally come from the US: “My instinct is that it was a tool for building a counter-narrative and applying pressure to China. So it’s the intent behind it that’s most important. So possibly open source leads with a classification slapped on it.”

This is a very odd position to be in.  Trump is making it a point to put more focus and pressure in China. Unfortunately we know that he will do anything or tell any lie to blame someone else for whatever goes bad. Therefore I find myself reluctant to trust anything that has been touched by the US at this point. I'd rather hear clear reports from the UK.

[240260280]

7 minutes ago, Zed Head said:

Is that from 2001 Space Odyssey?  Just saw that the other night.  Weird coincidence.

Look at the science and data..... then think about .... then comment.

Edited May 5, 2020 by 240260280