COVID-19

[240260280]

One must look at the details. Analysis is showing that using steroids, acetaminophen, acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) acid and ibuprofen during the fever stage have detrimental effect on recovery. It is better to let your body fight the infection naturally. Some also recommend  not taking acetaminophen,(Tylenol, paracetamol).

This illness has an incredible infection rate that occurs in the early stages of the disease. This  makes it differ from MERS, SARS, Ebola, Flu, etc.  Usually with these, the carrier has symptoms so you know to stay away.  This virus is not like that. It goes though the population like wild fire as spreaders show no symptoms.  It also does not kill like MERS or EBOLA so more spreaders are alive longer to continue spreading. 

This disease has only been with us for ~ 2 months (neglecting the hiding and lies 2 month period from mainland China that gave us this plague) so we still know very little about it.  Recent evidence from Japan shows you can be cured then get reinfected.  From leaked data, it seems like China has given up fighting the disease and has closed many hospitals.... I wonder if they now realize fighting it is impossible so everyone must face it individually and head on.... people are still welded in their apartments in Wuhan and factories have not ramped up.

 

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by 240260280

[SteveJ]

2 hours ago, 240260280 said:

One must look at the details. Analysis is showing that using steroids, acetaminophen, and ibuprofen during the fever stage have detrimental effect on recovery. It is better to let your body fight the infection naturally.

This illness has an incredible infection rate that occurs in the early stages of the disease. This  makes it differ from MERS, SARS, Ebola, Flu, etc.  Usually with these, the carrier has symptoms so you know to stay away.  This virus is not like that. It goes though the population like wild fire as spreaders show no symptoms.  It also does not kill like MERS or EBOLA so more spreaders are alive longer to continue spreading. 

This disease has only been with us for ~ 2 months (neglecting the hiding and lies 2 month period from mainland China that gave us this plague) so we still know very little about it.  Recent evidence from Japan shows you can be cured then get reinfected.  From leaked data, it seems like China has given up fighting the disease and has closed many hospitals.... I wonder if they now realize fighting it is impossible so everyone must face it individually and head on.... people are still welded in their apartments in Wuhan and factories have not ramped up.

 

 

On the other hand, I just came across this article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection

It specifically says that acetaminophen is okay.

Accurate information is difficult to come by in the fog of war.

[madkaw]

Unfortunately we are all paying the price of fake news and disinformation in society right now . Politics have skewed science . 
Also, to many variables to compare countries . China air quality , smoking population , density of population all contributors to this .

What scares me is when I hear from people they don’t even watch the news anymore , so they are not informed and make decisions based on that premise . Ignorance will play a bit part too. 
 

USA will probably benefit from our supply network and variance of populated areas . Listen to the scientists , not the politicians is my 2 cents

[240260280]

[motorman7]

10 hours ago, Zed Head said:

Edit - actually just realized that you used absolute numbers instead of percentages.  C'mon, you're an engineer!  You know better.  Do the math.

Personally, I think the media uses percentages to confuse the masses.  My use of absolute numbers was very purposeful and intentional and a true reflection of reality.

 

If two people have died of coronavirus and and one more dies what will sell more newspapers or make a better headline: 1) Coranavirus deaths in the US increase by 50% in one day! or 2) One more individual has succumbed to the coronavirus?  

The use of percentages should always put you on alert.  Also, when you see high percentages, typically your sample size is small.  When you read about companies growing by large percentages, the first thing that you should notice is that it is a small company.

 

I don't mean to sound so heartless, and I am in the demographic that needs to be a bit more cautious, and I have been.  However, I live by the data....this is also why I don't gamble or play the lottery among other things. 

 

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by motorman7

[240260280]

Things that made me go "OH $hit!!!!!"
 

- full hazmat suits goggles and masks worn in China in Jan when this "first started".... when did you ever see these PPE for a new "flu"?  China knew this was bad $hit right from the start AND they have the excellent digitized patient records and facial recognition to follow the paths of the early victims (which currently go back into November).

- China fumigating streets! What kind of flu virus needs to be cleaned outside?  Some serious $hit going down.

- China steeling Ebola virus from a Canadian Level 4 lab and sending it to the Wuhan Lab just a year ago.... not an act of good will. What were they doing?

- The masses of dead in China and Iran.

- People catching it twice in such short time... this is not a flu!!!!

- Uncertainty if mankind will ever gain immunity to this virus.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by 240260280

[psdenno]

Time to start cutting newspaper pages into strips the width of a toilet paper roll.

Sorry, just trying to lighten this discussion up a bit.

Dennis

[240260280]

6 minutes ago, psdenno said:

Time to start cutting newspaper pages into strips the width of a toilet paper roll.

Sorry, just trying to lighten this discussion up a bit.

Dennis

Well spring will be soon so lots of leaves too.

[Zed Head]

28 minutes ago, motorman7 said:

Personally, I think the media uses percentages to confuse the masses.  My use of absolute numbers was very purposeful and intentional and a true reflection of reality.

This is a weird comment.  Percentages are one of the most effective ways to describe large numbers.  

And odd that an "engineer" would ignore or not understand exponential growth, or even how any person wouldn't understand how disease spreads.  It starts small and grows.  It's not a constant like automobile deaths or addiction.  But, that's today's world.  Many "experts" sowing confusion.

If society can get ahead of the growth fewer people will die.  If they sit back and say it's a hoax and it will pass, more people will die by the time it's over.  The math shows that.

 

 

[Zed Head]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-south-korea-compared-to-flu-2020-3

motorman does have a point about the media though.  They tend to pick and choose their data to project a view.  In this article they use the US flu rate and the South Korea COVID-19 rate.  Why not use the South Korea flu rate?   Who knows.

Big picture wise, it's hard to imagine that the whole world and every state in the US has been suckered in to drastic measures by the media's use of percentages.  Could be though.  The last three years are telling.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Zed Head

[siteunseen]

The health department sent out an email this morning saying we may be forced to close the dining area. Take outs only from the big restaurant and our drive through business can still operate. So I'm about to get some socially distant Z time. Yay!

 

[motorman7]

Definitely caution is in order and I think the awareness of the virus spread will also help reduce flu deaths which will be an added benefit.

Regarding exponential growth, I think the exponential growth is in test kits and testing, not new cases (although that is growing as well).  I am in complete agreement with the John Hopkins professor who stated the the number of cases in the US is actually in the 50K to 500K range, and I would lean to the high side.  The coronavirus has gone pretty much unchecked in the US for the last 3 months and with such a connected society, it is hard for me to believe the that the number is just in the low thousands.  My personal opinion is that a large number of people have had it and moved on, thinking they had the flu.  I would also contend that a number of the 8200 flu deaths this year were actually coronavirus deaths, just not tested. The media is just catching up really.  Yes, it is a novel virus and has sadly killed a significant number of people, I do however question our response.

It will be interesting the follow the UK's data versus the US data.  Personally, I think they are using the best approach for the long term, but time will tell.