COVID-19

[siteunseen]

I remember wearing these down to the colored layers.  Ew...now I remember my older sister throwing them at me like a frisbee to the head. 

[motorman7]

14 hours ago, Zed Head said:

Did you know that the CDC changed their reporting guidelines recently?

https://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/news/2020/04/10/dewinenew-covid-19-reporting-guidelines-includes.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-york-start-reporting-probable-coronavirus-deaths-cdc-n1184821

It's thought that actual COVID-19 caused deaths might be higher than thought, due to unconfirmed home deaths.

https://www.propublica.org/article/theres-been-a-spike-in-people-dying-at-home-in-several-cities-that-suggests-coronavirus-deaths-are-higher-than-reported

Yes, totally agree on that.  Personally, I hate going to the doctors or hospitals and pretty much would need to be on my death bed before going.  Just the smell of hospitals and medical facilities makes me nauseous.  My wife still tells the story how for her doctors visits for ultrasounds during her pregnancies  (decades ago), that I would start getting sick in the hospital parking lot even before the we got into the building. 

The flip side to this, however, is it seems that a lot of the deaths seem to have pre-existing conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes, etc. So perhaps overall, the Covid deaths lead to a reduction in the heart disease, cancer and diabetes deaths.  

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/07/new-york-coronavirus-deaths-data-shows-most-had-underlying-illnesses/2960151001/

https://www.yahoo.com/news/obesity-biggest-factor-driving-york-155800441.html

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Really starting to have a hard time with this whole quarantine thing.  I think it has gotten beyond stupid.  I came across these two articles yesterday and the irony is tragic.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/us/florida-inmate-coronavirus-murder.html

Do we count this murder as a Covid Death?

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/north-county-sheriffs-deputies-ticket-people-violating-stay-at-home-order/2305834/   

Really, 6 months in jail?

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I still think for California, we are a ticking time bomb.  The lockdown is just delaying the inevitable.  It will happen, just later than everyone else.  Only difference is our economy will be much worse off because of the delay.  And there is nothing I can do about it which is probably the most frustrating thing.

 

[Zed Head]

Cuomo's briefing just addressed the NYTimes article.  Says that they have not changed their COVID-19 reporting method.  The Times article confused things.

The purpose of the mitigation efforts is for the healthcare system on one hand, and to buy time to develop a vaccine on the other.  The first will give people that get sick the best care possible.  Those who would die anyway will die.  The second is to save people who would otherwise get the virus and die.  If a year and a half is too long to take care of your old people, then bring on the disease.  That's the heart of the situation.

I enjoyed knowing my grandmother from when she was 87 to when she died at 97.  She survived a few illnesses on the way but I don't think that i would choose to expose her at 87 years old just because i wanted to get outside mask-free.  

Cuomo's briefing has new ideas and instruction every time.  I think that the governors will come up with a plan or plans  that gets things going to some lower level pretty soon.  Something to build on at least.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Zed Head

[Zed Head]

I'm sure that there are economists somewhere who have calculated the "human" cost of shutting down various economies against the human cost of infecting more people.

One thing that might come out of this pandemic is the realization that much of what humans do is actually just "busy" work.  Essentially useless things that we do just to avoid being bored or to seem to be "working".  It's one of the weird things about society that everybody has to "earn" their money through some sort of effort even if the effort produces nothing of value.

Way back when i was in high school economists were predicting that society would go to a four day work week because technology was making things more efficient.  Instead we're all working more hours and days to produce more crap.

[Zed Head]

The battle line between individual human health and the "economy" seems to be shaping up even more firmly as states versus the W.H.  Cuomo is forming his own high-powered business leader team.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-governors-excl/new-york-forms-team-to-develop-trump-proof-economic-reopening-plan-idUSKCN21Y01V

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reuters

 

[motorman7]

Here are the latest charts.  Not sure what happened with New York numbers but it is a pretty monstrous jump with over 2K added deaths.  From a chart standpoint, this will probably be our peak because of the anomaly.

Other notable numbers are a rise in Connecticut, Massachusetts and......California. Will be interesting to see where California goes in the next few days.

 

28 minutes ago, Zed Head said:

The battle line between individual human health and the "economy" seems to be shaping up even more firmly as states versus the W.H.  Cuomo is forming his own high-powered business leader team.

 

 Yes, this is quite interesting.  One King or 50 Kings.  Personally, I  prefer the 50 kings as it allows me to move to a more favorable kingdom if I so choose.  Also, I think all states have their own challenges that need to be handled differently.  You can't manage Wyoming like New York, etc.

 

I think the thing I miss the most (other than the major loss of freedom) is the local restaurants being closed.  And yet our fast food places are going full speed ahead.  I guess that way we can get infected faster. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-two-mcdonalds-locations-kona-hawaii-linked-dozen-virus-cases/

 

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by motorman7

[Zed Head]

If you consider Europe as a scaled version of the USA the next few weeks will be very informative.  Here's an article with some good graphics.  Many "reopening" experiments happening in late April, early May.  The article title is misleading, there's much more to it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/eu-offers-heartfelt-apology-italy-coronavirus-response-herd-immunity

[Zed Head]

Here's some philosophy from Australia.  It's about lifeboats.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/16/those-talking-about-a-fast-end-to-social-distancing-should-consider-the-cost-paid-in-human-lives#maincontent

[Pilgrim]

No question there is a critical tension between disease control and the economic impact of keeping businesses closed. The questions are how to open the doors, and when.

From what I have read, I have more comfort with a carefully staged and tiered opening than other approaches, but there needs to be evidence that the approach has a basis in science and practice.  I am interested in hearing what the east coast and west coast governors' groups have to say after they've tapped the expertise in their regions. The Reuters article above that describes the process that Cuomo leads sounds especially promising!  (Especially the effort to "Trump-proof" it.) But I think the economic squeeze is sufficient that a change could happen some time in May...could be early or late. I would place a substantial bet that it will be later than Trump wants. 

I frankly don't trust the Trump admin to listen to experts or use good judgment in their recommendation.  My assumption is that Trump will ignore anyone who knows more than he does, make a "hunch" decision influenced by information from one of his toadies with a profit-making motive, and the outcome wouldn't be good. It's sad that I have to write that last sentence...but we're in a position where our governors need to help us guard against half-baked actions of the president.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Pilgrim

[motorman7]

Totally agree with the tiered approach.  You can not unleash everybody at once.  That would be a disaster.  Face masks and social distancing still need to take place even when people are out and about.

Personally, I really think they need to look at the age factor in all of this.  Unfortunately, I think it is being largely ignored.  The majority of the deaths are in people 60 years old and older, often with underlying conditions.  Yes there are a few outliers under 60 that do not survive , but the percentage is very low (The media will produce a documentary on every one of those under 60 individuals to try and persuade you otherwise).  I would personally start with allowing much more freedom to those under 40.  Then maybe several weeks later, we up it to 50 years of age, then 60, then 70, etc.  I don't mind waiting as I am closer to 60.  

Open spaces need to be opened up.  Beaches, parks, national forests, lakes, rivers, oceans, etc need to be opened up.  Again, keep the distance, wear a mask, and start with those under 40. after a while, let us older folks in.

Open up the restaurants, but keep every other table open.  You wear a mask until you are seated.  Open it up, but be smart about it.  No mask, no service.

Keep the special hours shopping.  I like that as does my MIL.

We really need to start getting smart about this, unfortunately there are very few managers in our government.  We have hired a bunch of rich people who are still getting paychecks and getting advice from other rich people (right Bill) and have no clue what it is like to live paycheck to paycheck or without a paycheck.  They are out of touch, unfortunately, we elected them thinking the money made them smart. 

 

[Zed Head]

Over the last few weeks you can see that the W.H. has basically just been copying what the two governor coalitions are doing (and there's a third now, in the midwest).  It's like giving commands after somebody has already taken an action, and pretending that they are doing what you directed.  He'll claim credit for what works and direct blame for any problems.  I've added the link to the new W.H. guidelines below.

I was watching Dr. Birx just now and she has started to blame the individual labs for not doing enough testing.  Even though the individual labs have said that they do not have the materials to do the tests.  The collected test materials are there but they can't get them through the machines fast enough.  I could tell from listening that it has been many many years since she ever ran a testing machine of any kind, if she ever did.  She lost some credibility today.  "Just turn the testing rate knob to 11, what are you waiting for?"

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

[Zed Head]

Age is irrelevant when you consider asymptomatic spreading.  That's why the "re-opening" will be slow.  People will not be getting immediately sick to where they can be hauled away and separated from the herd. You could argue that the younger healthier people should be held back longest because they will be the most active asymptomatic spreaders.  They're the ones that will ignore the symptoms the longest and be most likely to forego the face coverings.  Most likely to stay out late, party, drink, forget that there's a pandemic going on, or just atop caring.

It's going to open up as far as the healthcare system can stand.  COVID-19 processing plants.  Until there's a vaccine.  Older people, and people with health conditons, will have to be extra careful.  Might be best to set up a two caste system.  One for those who want to stay safe and one for those who don't care.  We can give them some sort of identifier to wear so people will know who to associate with...