I agree with your analysis of the time line. People have a lot of wishful thinking and many fail to think this through.
Viruses don't go away. We have to live with this from now on, like we do with the flu virus. Not a year, not 10 years, but from now on.
I think there will be vaccine(s) by the end of the year, but they won't be well distributed for months, and given our for-profit health care system, they won't be priced for low income people to take them. Because of this, there will be an increased rate of CO-19 infections among low income groups for a long time.
The stupidity of people who fight using masks and distancing will continue. The anti-vaxxers will add to the non-compliant numbers and claim everything from "principle" to "gummint plot to pollute our precious bodily fluids" (see also: General Jack. D. Ripper, Dr. Strangelove.)
I'm not planning to do much traveling other than in my own car for the next year or so. If multiple vaccines come out, I may, just may, decide to use air travel, but I want to see a track record first.