motorman7

I took the average of 75% and 86% to come up with roughly 80% Asymptomatic. 80% is 4 out of 5, that is 4 out of every 5 are Asymptomatic. Thus only 1 in 5 are Symptomatic. To get the Total number of COVID-19 infected, I multiplied the number of Asymptomatic (1 in 5) by 5 to get the Total Covid-19 infected. That is 5X Note: this number does not include those that are just mildly sick from COVID-19 and don't get tested or thought perhaps they had the flu. Thus the "easily 5X".

It shows the rate of Test Kit Production which is very important. However, it has no relevance to Mortality rate. As for news articles: https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/86-of-people-with-coronavirus-are-walking-around-undetected-study-says/ “Stealth” coronavirus cases are fueling the pandemic, with a staggering 86% of people infected walking around undetected, a new study says. Six of every seven cases – 86% — were not reported in China before travel restrictions were implemented, driving the spread of the virus, according to a study Monday in the journal Science. https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1165 In an open letter to the authorities in the Tuscany region,1 Romagnani wrote that the great majority of people infected with covid-19—50-75%—were asymptomatic, but represented “a formidable source” of contagion. “The percentage of people infected, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases, particularly, but not only, among young people. Isolation of asymptomatics is essential for controlling the spread of the virus and the seriousness of the epidemic,” he said ___________ For what it is worth, I am an engineer and would consider myself an expert when it comes to data and statistics. I have made my living from it for the last 35 years. An expert in that I have made presentations to rooms of NASA scientists and engineers just to name a few, so I am extremely comfortable with data and charts.

As I said before, The chart above is a chart of Test Kit Production and has little relevance to the actual number of cases of COVID-19,which is easily 5X higher than this chart shows. Not sure why you keep showing this chart. It will be irrelevant until the number of kits equals those that show symptoms and are tested. Then you can multiply by 5 and get a rough idea of actual cases. ASYMPTOMATIC is the big issue here. I have said this before, the item that makes this virus unique is that most people are ASYPMTOMATIC. Italy said 75% of people are Asymptomatic, China says 86%. This means roughly 4 out of 5 people will exhibit no symptoms at all, NONE! Those with NO symptoms will most likely not go to get checked. In the US, they won’t even look at you unless you have some kind of symptom. Italy said their biggest problem was Asymptomatic spreaders. They don’t even know they are carriers, and thus exert less or no caution. Germany tested those that were in contact with Symptomatic spreaders, so their number includes Asymptomatic people which is why their death rate number is so low.

Cleaning and prepping small parts here. Also sending out final batch of parts to the plating shop. I am surprised that Motorsports does not yellow zinc plate their engine parts (two shown below) but it works out fine as I am sending parts to the pate shop anyway. Disassembled the bumpers to prep for new chrome plating. Looks like the bumperette rubber is in descent shape and can be re-used. That is good news as those peices are pretty hard to find. The trim rubber is cracked and oxidized so we will replace those.

Personally, I think the April 12 date is a gutsy call and the right way to go. People need a definitive date. Closing a state ‘indefinitely’ leaves no hope, no goal, and will result in people violating that order at will. I can tolerate just about anything for two weeks. I cannot tolerate ‘indefinitely’ (Mr. Newsome). The thing that still fascinates me is the how we are all avoiding the Big Monstrous Elephant in the room. During the 2017-2018 flu season, there were over 60,000 flu deaths in the US alone, and this is AFTER we have ‘developed a societal immunitly’ and have a vaccine. That translates to over 165 flu deaths a day, for every day of the year. In that the flu has a ‘season’, you are looking at 300 to 400 deaths per day from the flu during that season. Those are pretty big numbers that we are all pretty OK with. Companies are not shutting down, sick people are still going to work (unfortunately), life goes on. It’s called the ‘lullaby effect’. We have heard it so many times, had the shots, heard all the warnings year after year, so we are OK with it. Check out the numbers, they are large: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html I will be curious to see if the coronavirus, which does not have a vaccine, causes more deaths than the flu that we are currently very comfortable with. The bottom line is that you will come in contact with it at some time in your life. We are just too connected as a society. Fortunately, we have given ourselves a little time to prepare for what is soon to come. I am hoping we are ready and those that need attention will get it. Hopefully we have learned the importance of washing our hands, keeping safe distance, and staying home from work when sick among other things, from this situation. That is about as political as I will get here. Time to start thinking about the cars.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-nobel-laureate-predicts-quicker-210318391.html Another very good article. It's good when people use data to analyze a problem instead of their raw emotion.

Best article I have read on this whole situation. Well done!

Coil spring RH and LH should probably be FWD and AFT

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/ This article shows lower mortality rates (still higher than flu) for those with 'symptomatic' infections. Interesting to know what the rate would be if you include the asymptomatic. Asymptomatic is a wild card. What causes that? Blood type? Overall health? Diet? Gene's? Time will tell, hoping for the best.

I agree, I think it will be similar to flu but worse for elderly and not so bad for the young. Only problem is that it will be in addition to flu, so will probably be an add on to our current virus mortality rate. By next year you will most likely get a coronavirus shot along with your flu shot. Both will be 30% effective.

Nice chart, but I think the yellow line just reflects the number of test kits being distributed and used world wide as we are finally catching on. China was way ahead of us and everyone else on that. Both US and S.Korea had first detected cases and death back in Jan 20. Hard for me to believe that those first cases were isolated and slowly being passed along (as the yellow line shows) as this is quite contagious. Personally, I think the real world cases would more closely track the Violet line shown below. Were test kits fully available and every person with 'flu like' symptoms checked, we would see a much more smooth line, closer to the orange line of China in the beginning. Without preventative measures to restrain the virus outside of China, the real number most likely exceeded the China cases back in late February and I am sure beyond what the yellow dots show today. The wild card is an estimated 86% of COVID-19 carriers not being affected by the virus or showing any symptoms, which means now the numbers on the left should/could all be multiplied by 6. Also, me and my entire office could be infected and none of us know it. Between work, Costco, church, movies, restaurants, etc, exposure is virtually unavoidable. Having said all this I think everyone would be well served to focus on keeping their immune system in good order. Personally, I am making sure I get plenty of sleep, eating well, minimizing sugar (compromises the immune system), eating my probiotics, and washing my hands much better than I used to. Just helping the body do it's job against the virus. Anyway, nice to have a forum to discuss this. It helps me to hear all sides on this as it is definitely on everyone's mind.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-world-focuses-on-coronavirus-dont-forget-about-the-deadly-flu-2020-02-06 I'm still having a hard time being worried about this when I see these numbers for the flu. They are not even in the same ballpark. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-undiagnosed-spread.html "And 86% of those infected experience no symptoms." I will take that over the flu any day. This means we should probably multiply the number infected by 6 to get a more accurate number, also. https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-australian-scientists-map-immune-070507339.html "Their research, published in Nature Medicine journal on Tuesday, shows people are recovering from the new virus like they would from the flu"

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-united-states-deaths/index.html You have to love the media. Check out this statement in the article above..."and the death toll continues rising." Really! When does that ever happen. Personally, I will be a little more shocked when the death toll shrinks....People coming back to life would be pretty impressive. I guess at that point, the Zombie apocalypse is upon us.

Got the exhaust manifold back with ceramic coating. Also picked up an air galley from JDM-Car-Parts.com. Will tap the ports and loosely install. Will do final install when motor is in car.

I am guessing at least 12 feet high. There is a lot of empty space up there.

Yes, I am thinking that I can even get a lift in their. That would be nice. Also looking very forward to retirement. So much to do out there.

Funny, hadn't thought of that term. Actually, I like it from the standpoint that its' intention is to build up a societies anti-bodies naturally. The science is that there may be a larger percentage of deaths in the short term, but in the long term there will be an overall greater society resistance due to the extensive exposure and fewer death in the long run. (percent is appropriate in this case as the population sizes are very different between the US and UK). Honestly, I don' think you can escape it. Between Costco, Ralphs, family, etc....we are just too connected as a people. Yes, this has crossed my mind as well, fabricated by some Gen-Xer worried about not receiving social security as they get older. Also thought it might be a ploy developed by the 1% at Davos to get the Fed Rate down to 0% so they can borrow Billions and charge 3% to the masses. 3% of billions is a lot of money. (Just thought I would increase my use of percentages here ?) OR.....don't get me started.

Boy, that garage is just absolutely fabulous, very jealous here. Thought I would share a couple pictures of my future garage here. Wife and I bought a place in Boise Idaho and are renting it out until we are ready to retire which is probably about a year and a half from now. Garage has 1500 sq-ft of space and a large RV section. Pretty sure I can fit all of my cars in here. Our Jeep Grand Cherokee looks kind of small in there.

Definitely caution is in order and I think the awareness of the virus spread will also help reduce flu deaths which will be an added benefit. Regarding exponential growth, I think the exponential growth is in test kits and testing, not new cases (although that is growing as well). I am in complete agreement with the John Hopkins professor who stated the the number of cases in the US is actually in the 50K to 500K range, and I would lean to the high side. The coronavirus has gone pretty much unchecked in the US for the last 3 months and with such a connected society, it is hard for me to believe the that the number is just in the low thousands. My personal opinion is that a large number of people have had it and moved on, thinking they had the flu. I would also contend that a number of the 8200 flu deaths this year were actually coronavirus deaths, just not tested. The media is just catching up really. Yes, it is a novel virus and has sadly killed a significant number of people, I do however question our response. It will be interesting the follow the UK's data versus the US data. Personally, I think they are using the best approach for the long term, but time will tell.

Personally, I think the media uses percentages to confuse the masses. My use of absolute numbers was very purposeful and intentional and a true reflection of reality. If two people have died of coronavirus and and one more dies what will sell more newspapers or make a better headline: 1) Coranavirus deaths in the US increase by 50% in one day! or 2) One more individual has succumbed to the coronavirus? The use of percentages should always put you on alert. Also, when you see high percentages, typically your sample size is small. When you read about companies growing by large percentages, the first thing that you should notice is that it is a small company. I don't mean to sound so heartless, and I am in the demographic that needs to be a bit more cautious, and I have been. However, I live by the data....this is also why I don't gamble or play the lottery among other things.

Unfortunately in all this, I am an engineer and am trained to just look at stats and data. Having looked at the data, the whole Coronavirus scare makes no sense to me. To date (March 15) for all of 2020 (Approximately 75 days) there are 60 Coronavirus deaths in the US. Meanwhile in the US for all of 2020 there have been roughly: 8,200 Flu related deaths. 9,800 suicides 7,500 Automobile accident deaths 14,300 Opioid related deaths. Also, Coronavirus is no more deadly than the flu for people under 65 based on data from China an South Korea. Cases are not 'spiking', they are just getting more test kits and are now able to differentiate between flu and coronaviris. Coronavirus has been spreading unchecked for the last 3 months in the US without significant damage. Most people have passed it off as the flu before the hype reached full swing. The number in the US infected ranges anywhere from 50K to 500K according to a John Hopkins professor. I would agree with that number to the high side on this. I think Boris Johnson of the UK is the only individual that gives me hope for sanity in this crazy world. Personally, my bet is that the coronavirus will mutate into the shadovirus. This is the virus that will make us all afraid of our own shadows. Cure will be to avoid direct sunshine and all lights inside your home. Just my thoughts. OK, back into isolation

Finally got my struts finished up......now I just need a body to attach them to. Calipers are rebuilt, all new pads and shoes.

For prep, it was mostly wire wheel on the end fittings and any overspray that was on the tubes. I used 220 grit sandpaper on the tubes themselves till the tubes were mostly clean. It's best if you can use a 6 foot box so the tubes only have to bend in half. Bending into thirds because you only have a 4 foot box is tricky and not recommended. the bends end up being where the engine to trans area is and there are lots of bends there already , so gets confusing. Also, when you straighten the tubes, the plating will crack in the bend area when you straighten them. You can touch this are up with gold paint. With the bend in the tunnel, it is not super noticeable. These tubes will be 'Rack plated' so don't send your bulk parts (nuts and bolts) with the tubes, send bulk parts separately. There is a Lot charge for the Rack plating, so you can add a few extra tubes and it's essentially free. The tubes in the picture are for two cars. Also, very thrilled with how the plating turned out. Coloring, rainbow and brightness appear to be just perfect.

Fuel and brake lines came back from Sav-On Plating. Parts look awesome and cost was very reasonable.

Yes, I didn't realize that the floor pan was so bad. It was covered up with Dynamat on top and undercoating on the bottom. The rust in the frame rails was obviously pretty bad as well and not visible until it was opened up. For the previous restorations, the body and paint work was almost exactly 1/3 the cost of the total restoration cost. For this one it will be more....almost half I am guessing. Fortunately, the owner has a good number of parts on hand which should make things go easier.