240Z Collector Value

[Carl Beck]

Hi Arne:

We've had this discussion before, but I think it is worth refreshing it ever so often.

I deal with basically three different types of "Z Car People" all the time. Collectors, Restorers and Enthusiasts. A few people are all of these, but the broad market is segmented by these three types.

All three type of people - buy quite different examples of the Datsun 240Z's and they value them quite differently.

I have not seen your Z in person - but following along here for years - I wouldn't be surprised if you could find a buyer willing to pay $12K to $15K this year, and maybe $18K in a few years from now. But you know you would have very hard time finding a replacement for $12K to $15K. You seem to have a nice #3 condition 240Z, but your location keeps the price depressed a bit, and the current economy keeps too many 240Z Enthusiast on the side lines - or looking for current suppressed market bargains. {and they are out there now too}

In the lower to mid level Classic Car Market price ranges - cars recognized by the majority of Collectors as being true Classics {ie. of timeless beauty}, all seem to establish their relative values based somewhat on tradition or historic expectations in that market, but mostly on economic facts. {as Guy correctly points out}

Such that if a #3 condition example is $12K to $15K - then a #2 example will sell for twice that amount, and a true #1 example will sell for 2.5x or more that of a #3 condition example. There are certainly overlaps in these price ranges and different buyers see things differently - but nonetheless that seems to be an established rule-of-thumb there.

If I bought your Z for $15K - what would it cost me today to restore it to #1 Condition and how long would that take? Answer: I could easily spend an additional $30K and I'd feel lucky if I could keep the cost down to that. If a Collector bought the car and farmed everything out to professionals - it would easily cost him $85K+. So any #1 or #2 condition example already completed and ready to set in his collection for less than 1/2 that amount is a bargain to him. For that matter 240Z's are a bargain Classic when sitting side by side with the Ferraris, Porsches and mid year Corvettes in his collection.

To the people who are "restorers" - they won't pay for a #3 condition car because they are going to strip everything to a shell and restore everything anyway - so they look for good #4 condition cars in the $5K to $8K price range.

All of this leaves #3 condition 240Z's today in fairly good supply and somewhat low demand in this economy.

So I believe that the rational that if a good #3 condition example in the Enthusiast Market is worth $15K it leads to an assumption that a #2 condition example in the Collector market is worth $20K or $25K is not supported by the economics of the situation. Nor for that matter the actual prices being paid for true #1 and #2 condition examples.

At this point in the economy - very few buyers are doing anything. This too will pass. I could have bought a Ferrari 275 GTB/2 in Miami during the 1991/92 melt down for $85K as Atlantic Bank flushed their repo's... {but I didn't want to risk the cash then either}. This too will pass...

FWIW,

Carl B.

Edited February 9, 2011 by Carl Beck

[5thhorsemann]

That article is crap, the values are all wrong, the riveria in the 20k range would need a ground up resto. I saw one on Barrett jackson go for over $100k It was a dual quad big block, but still. If you watch the B-J auctions with any regularity you will see that these prices are way out of line.

[five&dime]

I was watching a special on the Ferrari 250 GT0. Those cars fetch a million dollars now yet in the 80's, people couldn't give them away. Oh how the times change....

[Carl Beck]

I understand your point -but in the 80's a Ferrari GTO would sell for 5 to 12 million. Today they are 25 to 30 million. In the 60's if you could find one, used they were $15K to $20K in great shape, ex competition examples were less than $10K.

During the mid 90's melt down - the prices went very low as well. You could pick up a good GTO for as little as $10M.

FWIW,

Carl B.

[Arne]

Hi Arne:

We've had this discussion before, but I think it is worth refreshing it ever so often.

Absolutely. Economic things are always changing.

I have not seen your Z in person - but following along here for years - I wouldn't be surprised if you could find a buyer willing to pay $12K to $15K this year, and maybe $18K in a few years from now.

Correct. I have a couple of standing offers for $15k even now.

But you know you would have very hard time finding a replacement for $12K to $15K.

Also correct. Similar cars are in short supply, even here. And they change hands quickly when offered.

You seem to have a nice #3 condition 240Z, but your location keeps the price depressed a bit, and the current economy keeps too many 240Z Enthusiast on the side lines - or looking for current suppressed market bargains.

Yes, I'd humbly say that mine is a reasonably nice #3. A very nice attention-attracting car, but not so nice or original that I'm reluctant to drive it.

Such that if a #3 condition example is $12K to $15K - then a #2 example will sell for twice that amount, and a true #1 example will sell for 2.5x or more that of a #3 condition example. There are certainly overlaps in these price ranges and different buyers see things differently - but nonetheless that seems to be an established rule-of-thumb there.

And this is the part of the market I don't understand, because neither I nor anyone I know personally is involved here. Still have trouble grasping that value difference, even if I understand it intellectually.

If I bought your Z for $15K - what would it cost me today to restore it to #1 Condition and how long would that take? Answer: I could easily spend an additional $30K and I'd feel lucky if I could keep the cost down to that.

Absolutely. You'd need to strip it and go through the whole thing. I do have a lot of the original parts in storage, so that helps. But even so, I'd still guess at least $30-40k for my car to go to true #1 state.

If a Collector bought the car and farmed everything out to professionals - it would easily cost him $85K+. So any #1 or #2 condition example already completed and ready to set in his collection for less than 1/2 that amount is a bargain to him. For that matter 240Z's are a bargain Classic when sitting side by side with the Ferraris, Porsches and mid year Corvettes in his collection.

To the people who are "restorers" - they won't pay for a #3 condition car because they are going to strip everything to a shell and restore everything anyway - so they look for good #4 condition cars in the $5K to $8K price range.

All of this leaves #3 condition 240Z's today in fairly good supply and somewhat low demand in this economy.

So I believe that the rational that if a good #3 condition example in the Enthusiast Market is worth $15K it leads to an assumption that a #2 condition example in the Collector market is worth $20K or $25K is not supported by the economics of the situation. Nor for that matter the actual prices being paid for true #1 and #2 condition examples.

Makes good sense when lined out this way.

But what prompted my comment was the valuation in the originally referenced article, plus Doug's comment about the offers he's received, and neither of those match what you've described.

As with other cars in this gallery, the estimated value is for a nicer, but not necessarily perfect, example.

They are saying $32k, which may be correct for a #2 car, judging from your explanation. But they are describing what sounds to me like a #3. I still maintain that the value they state is out of line for the car they describe.

Likewise, IIRC DougN's car is not a factory shade of yellow. If so, I can't see that as being a #2 either. A nice #3 like mine, sure. But not a #2. (Sorry Doug, no offense intended.) So the offers Doug has received seem out of line to me also - especially judging from my vantage point in a relatively Z-rich part of the country.

Edited February 9, 2011 by Arne

[five&dime]

I understand your point -but in the 80's a Ferrari GTO would sell for 5 to 12 million. Today they are 25 to 30 million. In the 60's if you could find one, used they were $15K to $20K in great shape, ex competition examples were less than $10K.

During the mid 90's melt down - the prices went very low as well. You could pick up a good GTO for as little as $10M.

FWIW,

Carl B.

Ahh thanks for the clarification. I was going by memory and the program I saw was over a year ago. Still blows my mind!

[DougN]

Just to be clear Arne, just one offer (from the owner of a Nissan Dealership), not multiple offers I would also describe my car as a very nice #3 like yours.

[Montezuma]

I think the most realistic auction house is Mecum. Mecum's hammer prices are more what a common man car collector would pay. Mecum would allow a condition 3 Z cross the block and Barrett Jackson would not. There guys in this thread that have really well done cars that would fetch over $12K to $25K. Mecum does not have the mirrors to worry about. I watch it all the time on HD theater. It is time for us to inflate the value of these cars with refreshing like Motorman does or restores like Diseazd. I think the cheap guys are keeping our beloved car value down. I bought a few cars to refresh and someday hope to send them across an aution block like Mecum at Monterey. Mark my words our Zs will someday get to be invited to a high scale car show. All originals of course.

[psdenno]

Mark my words our Zs will someday get to be invited to a high scale car show. All originals of course.

May the youngest among us live that long........

Part of the issue with Zs is that there are still too many of them around. Buyers have many good cars to choose from when Z shopping and that tends to keep prices down.

Not that the number produced always impacts collector value - for example, the 1963 Avanti R1 made the list at $33,000. An astute buyer could probably pick up two or three relatively nice examples for that amount of money. The R1 is the least desirable version of the Avanti. The supercharged R2 or R3 and dual carb R4 are the ones to have. Total Studebaker Avanti production was just 4,643 cars. Add to that the fact that you can just about build an Avanti from the NOS and Repro parts that still exist and $33K becomes wishful thinking. I've owned my Avanti R2 for 35 years and appreciation has barely kept ahead of inflation. As with the Z, about the only folks who are making money on them are those who sell parts and services.

Enjoy the ride and don't consider the Z as part of your retirement portfolio.

Dennis

Edited February 11, 2011 by Arne

[cygnusx1]

The prices are controlled by supply and demand. Not by what we ask for our cars.

[Travel'n Man]

I feel the values on two of the cars that I own (that are included on the listing) are dead on - the values are correct and also to the dollar amount that I have both of my cars insured for through Hagerty's. I am sure that most of the folks out that that have put thousands of dollars in their car(s) want to protect their money - I'm not calling it an investment due to the fact we really don't care if we sell our cars to make money - we are putting money into the car for emotional reasons (but want to make sure if it is stolen - crashed - or whatever) our money is protected. For that reason the value is set and recommended by Hagerty.

As I keep putting money into my car (last year a refreshed engine bay - Rebello Racing Cam and Head - rebuilt bottom engine - rebored - 240 rods - flat top pistons and so forth) I will increase my agreed value with Hagerty's to make sure my money is protect with some type of insurance agreement. I am aware that the car value is what it is and it is only worth that much money to me, but........my money is protected and I'm having fun in the process just like Guy!!

[FastWoman]

I'm with Zedyone. My 280 fits my comfort level. It's not perfect, and it's a joy to drive. Wrecking it wouldn't be a tremendous tragedy (but it would certainly hurt!). I sold two relatively perfect cars I was afraid to drive, banked most of the money, and used some of it to buy my Z. I'm pleased with that decision. If my Z ever becomes precious, then I might become afraid to drive it. Then I suppose I would have to sell it (not complaining about the profit, of course) and be content to drive the '94 Miata -- still missing my baby.

There's nothing like a cheap-ish classic sportscar!

Edited February 11, 2011 by FastWoman